EUR/USD Forecast: US GDP to test dollar's comeback


The EUR/USD pair continues shedding ground this Friday, with the pair a handful of pips above the 1.0800 level, the daily low established early in the European opening. The dollar comeback, supported by the recovery staged by local yields, and Lochkart's comments anticipating a rate hike won't take longer than September, comes ahead of the release of US GDP figures, later today. Expectations for the final revision of the US Q4 GDP are of a 2.4% growth, against previous estimate of 2.2%. Therefore, a number above expected should gave the dollar additional support this Friday. However, weak US macroeconomic data has undermined dollar strength lately, meaning a worse-than-expected figure can quickly reverse the latest greenback's recovery.

Technically, the pair was rejected from the 50% retracement of the February/March slide around 1.1000, and it currently trades below the 38.2% retracement of the same rally, at 1.0865, which means additional declines  today will confirm the upward leg was merely corrective, and that the pair will most likely, resume its bearish trend. The 4 hours chart shows that the 20 SMA gains bearish slope well above the current price, limiting the upside around 1.0950, whilst the technical indicators head lower below their mid-lines, supporting a downward extension. A downward acceleration below 1.0780, may see the pair closing the week around 1.0710/20, while above 1.0865, the rally can extend up to the 1.0910 price zone.

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