EUR/USD Forecast: Euro could stay in consolidation phase ahead of key events
- EUR/USD fluctuates in a tight channel above 1.1100 on Tuesday.
- Hawkish comments from ECB officials support the Euro.
- August Retail Sales data will be featured in the US economic docket.
EUR/USD benefited from the selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) and climbed to its highest level in 10 days above 1.1100 on Monday. The pair stays relatively quiet and trades in a tight channel early Tuesday. The technical outlook suggests that the bullish outlook remains unchanged, with a possibility of a technical correction in the near term.
Euro PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.50% | -0.66% | -0.13% | -0.12% | -0.83% | -0.60% | -0.46% | |
| EUR | 0.50% | -0.21% | 0.33% | 0.35% | -0.39% | -0.15% | -0.00% | |
| GBP | 0.66% | 0.21% | 0.46% | 0.56% | -0.18% | 0.07% | 0.22% | |
| JPY | 0.13% | -0.33% | -0.46% | 0.00% | -0.65% | -0.46% | -0.40% | |
| CAD | 0.12% | -0.35% | -0.56% | -0.01% | -0.80% | -0.48% | -0.45% | |
| AUD | 0.83% | 0.39% | 0.18% | 0.65% | 0.80% | 0.24% | 0.37% | |
| NZD | 0.60% | 0.15% | -0.07% | 0.46% | 0.48% | -0.24% | 0.14% | |
| CHF | 0.46% | 0.00% | -0.22% | 0.40% | 0.45% | -0.37% | -0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The improving risk mood and heightened odds of a large Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut at this week's meeting caused the USD to weaken against its major rivals at the beginning of the week.
Meanwhile, hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials further supported the Euro. ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir said argued that it would take a significant shift in the outlook for the ECB to lower the policy rate further in October, adding that they will "almost surely" have to wait until December for the next rate cut. Additionally, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said that the ECB should retain optionality about the speed of policy adjustments.
The US Census Bureau will publish Retail Sales data for August later in the day and the Fed will release Industrial Production figures for the same period. These data releases are unlikely to influence the market pricing of the Fed rate decision. Hence, their impact on the USD's valuation could remain short-lived. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 67% probability of the Fed opting for a large 50 basis points rate cut on Wednesday.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays slightly above 70, suggesting that EUR/USD could have a difficult time pushing higher before making a technical correction.
On the downside, the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of the latest uptrend and the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) form a strong support area at 1.1100-1.1090 ahead of 1.1040-1.1035 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 200-period SMA).
Looking north, first resistance could be spotted at 1.1160 (static level) before 1.1200 and 1.1275 (July 18, 2023, high).
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
