Vasilis Tsaprounis
Independent Analyst
The single European currency remains firmly above the level of 1,08 but having particular difficulty in continuing a strong upward momentum.
Tuesday was characterized as I have aptly mentioned in my yesterday's article by a mild upward movement which helped the European currency secure the level of 1,08 but was a long way from continuing to 1,09.
Υesterday's relatively poor agenda coupled with minor fluctuations in international stock markets led to a very calm trading day and the range of volatility was limited to only 50 basis points.
President Lagarde gave nothing new to the markets and the overall picture remains the same with the European Central Bank maintaining a more aggressive stance from the Fed for the time being , although the possible final level of interest rates is clear higher in favor of the US currency.
However, the significant narrowing of the gap that was evident a few months earlier has particularly favored the European currency and alongside the aggressive rhetoric maintained by the European Central Bank has led the European currency to have recovered strongly from the low levels found in September 2022.
The latest developments with the crisis in the US banking sector showed that they act as a weight for the Fed to maintain an aggressive tone too , something that acted as a catalyst and relatively soon the US dollar lost the last gains it had made up to 1,05 level.
These developments have strengthened the prospect that the single European currency will see even higher prices but something that will not happen easily and for this reason I expect to position myself in market dips and not follow a trend which has a short life.
Today is also characterized by a very indifferent economic agenda and for this reason I would more or less expect an similar picture to yesterday.
The most likely scenario is that the range of variation will be limited and I would hardly see any extreme prices for today either near the level of 1,09 or correspondingly a sharp dip to 1,07.
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