GBPUSD: Is Downtrend Over Yet ?!

In our previous analysis GBPUSD: Mid-Term Elliott Wave View !! the main count expected Cable to fall sharply downwards and Cable unfolded exactly as expected and first target was reached locking in 174 pips in profit.

This week`s main count expects Cable to consolidate and unfold in a sideways manner before resuming its downtrend while the alternate count expects that sideways movement is complete and that Cable is preparing for the next downwards leg.

As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Main Count

- Invalidation Point: 1.5360 -- 1.5027
- Confirmation Point: 1.5129
- Upwards Target: 1.5187
- Wave number: (4) aqua
- Wave structure: Corrective
- Wave pattern: Zigzag

Alternate Count

- Invalidation Point: 1.5360
- Confirmation Point: 1.5027
- Downwards Target: 1.4993
- Wave number: (5) aqua
- Wave structure: Motive
- Wave pattern: Impulse/Ending diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 9th November, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

This count expects that primary wave C maroon is unfolding downwards and within it intermediate waves (1) and (2) black might be complete and that intermediate wave (3) black has started unfolding towards the downside.

Within intermediate wave (3) black, it is expected that waves i and ii pink are complete and wave iii pink is underway.

Wave ii pink unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves (w), (x) and (y) green.

Wave (y) green unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Wave c orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple with wave 1 purple unfolding as a leading diagonal labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.

This count expects that wave iii pink is underway with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green is underway.

Wave (i) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave i orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Wave (ii) green unfolded as unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Within wave (iii) green it is likely that waves i and ii orange are complete and wave iii orange is at its early stages.

Wave i orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Wave ii orange unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C purple.

Within wave iii orange it is likely that waves 1 and 2 purple are complete and that wave 3 purple is underway.

Wave 1 purple unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.

Within wave 3 purple it is expected that waves (1) through (3) aqua are complete and wave (4) aqua is unfolding in a sideways manner.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.5129.

At 1.5187 wave (4) aqua would reach 0.382 of wave (3) aqua.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5360 as wave (4) aqua may not enter the price territory of wave (1) aqua and as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5027 as within wave (4) aqua no B wave may retrace more than 100 % of its A wave.

Alternate Wave Count

This count differs from the main count as it expects that wave (4) aqua is complete and that wave (5) aqua has started unfolding towards the downside.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.5027.

At 1.4993 wave (5) aqua would reach equality with wave (1) aqua.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5360 as wave (4) aqua may not enter the price territory of wave (1) aqua. It is worth noting that the invalidation point should be moved to the end of wave (4) aqua once we have confirmation on the hourly chart that wave (5) aqua is unfolding downwards.

We may also wish to keep an eye on the daily update GBP USD Forecast.