The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD, and AUD/NZD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: A failed attempt lower. Following the rejection from the former floor (now acting resistance) of the May 2014 bear channel the market on Friday made an attempt to exit the current stalemate but failed to maintain the break lower. So we’re still stuck in the ever narrowing range awaiting a sustained break for directional guidance.
EUR/JPY: Spiked below 133.96. The pair tried but failed to maintain the break of 133.98 hence leaving us with a long downside spike. It is still possible that the rejection only is temporary and that a new attempt lower will come within shortly but such a scenario also demands that we are holding below 136.22 or otherwise a more bullish short term outcome to be adopted.
USD/CAD: Eying next the upper boundary. The latest development makes the bull triangle scenario (the alternative one being a bull flag) the most likely one. If continuing to follow a triangle path the pair should next rise toward 1.2626 (78.6% of the 1.2697/1.2360 decline), the fall back small before breaking higher for the longer term targets in the 1.30-1.34 area.
AUD/NZD: Payback time. Following a fresh all-time low last week, a buyers’ response created an interesting print Thu (which fed into a Fri rally and an equally interesting weekly candle, with a tiny “body” and a long lower “shadow”). The sturdy move through the fast descending "Tenkan-Sen" points higher still and then with 1.0490\1.0510 being a primary correction objective. An alternative target comes with the flat 21day "Kijun-Sen" and a Jan-Feb 50% retracement ref at 1.0550.
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