The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Waiting for 1.1224 to be taken out. The situation remains the same as yesterday morning with a possible completed minor upside correction completed at 1.1423. A corrective peak can however not be confirmed with less than a break of an hourly b-wave low at 1.1224 (confirmation point for a new trend low). So we stick to the correction case arguing for more losses near term unless moving above 1.1423.
EUR/JPY: Sell a spike above 134.37. Contrary to our short term view yesterday the market struggled its way back up to the 134.15/37 resistance. Given the break of the important 134.15 support we are however still looking for a soon move lower from current levels. The outlook will turn even more bearish should the market make an unsuccessful attempt i.e. a spike above 134.37. Strategy should be to sell either 134.15-37 and/or breaking 132.40.
AUD/USD: A validated break lower. After the strong rejection lower on Wednesday the market has both rechecked and validated the break of the very important 0.8066 key support hence the green light has been given to additional losses, next probably down to the estimated 2001 support line, currently running at 0.7277. The strategy should hence remain to sell into all up tics and for today we are looking for the bounce from 0.7720 to likely end around 0.7800/10. The break lower in AUD/JPY, from an almost two yearlong wedge will also help putting more pressure on the oz.
USD/CAD: The FX market seems to price in lower oil still with USD/CAD scoring fresh highs every day now. With the long-term 1.2630 target met, the bar must be lifted to 1.2910\1.3065 next.
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