The following are the intraday outlooks for USD Index (DXY), EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF and Spot Gold as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
USD INDEX: Building upside pressure. With the move up from the bull flag (a break will in wave terms however not be confirmed until the b-wave high, 86.01, is taken out) it appears that the downside correction has been somewhat prematurely ended (84.20-83.89 were the thought target range). So keep monitoring 86.01 as a break will be giving the green light to a continued rise and accordingly new tops (88-ish?). An alternate wave count holds the door open to a bull triangle i.e. more time spent in the past weeks range before breaking higher.
EUR/USD: Temporary bounce from support. The pair initially fell down between the 1.2625 and 1.2605 support points before rebounding back higher in what we label as a temporary bounce. The congestion will either take the shape of a minor (hourly) triangle (remaining below 1.2677) or, if 1.2677 is broken creating a bear flag. The latter alternative will bring the pair up to 1.2693 before entering the next selling phase.
EUR/JPY: A 2ND corrective move higher. Yesterday’s bullish key day reversal strongly suggests that the upside reaction wasn’t over, not at all. A prolonged reaction will next take aim at the 2013 top line area and/or an equality point (to the Oct 16-20 rise) at 138.07 before making a new attempt to move south of 134 (a move below 135.21 will now be the confirmation point for new lows). Also USD/JPY, contrary to our expressed view of a turnaround no later than 108.01, will remain underpinned for yet some time.
EUR/CHF: Forming repetitive sub-1.2060 lows. On a few recent occasions, the sub-1.2060 level has attracted buyers and the prelude to earlier upswings look rather similar to what we see right now, so focus on refs at 1.2079 & 1.2092 is definitely justified for short-term traders.
Spot Gold: In a correctional move into Fibo grid. A potentially toppish candle earlier in the week has been followed by two consecutive bearish candles and it seems a third is in the making, targeting a Fibo retracement grid at 1,228/1,219/1,211. Back over 1,241\1,245 would confirm a near-term correctional low and argue for a +1,255 move.
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