The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and GBP/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: The euro remains on a slippery slope. Price action may have muted yesterday, but direction remains quite clear. The next hard ref to look out for below comes with a reaction low of 1.3104 printed this week a year ago. Short-term conditions are not stretched as per the deviation from a 21day exponential moving average, or 'monthly average' and this allows for extension towards 1.3065 without exaggerating the move.
USD/JPY: Stretched but bid - testing resistance. The move higher is short-term aggressive. Recant price action goes in line with short-term-following tools and this behavior points higher still. But the deviation from the monthly average may become a problem if not successfully breaking resistance at 104.85/93 (Jan reaction peaks). 1st support is the Aug25 high of 104.49, then comes the 8day 'Tenkan-Sen', now at 104.20. Even stronger support is located at 103.50/15.
AUD/USD: Targeting recent 0.9272/0.9235 lows. Following a late Aug three-wave structure ending at its 'Equality point' and overall resistance, the downside is back in focus. Nearby targets the market is thought to be gunning for are located at 0.9272 & 0.9353. Below the latter would open the bar for the May'14 low of 0.9208. Current intraday stretches are located at 0.9290 & 0.9355.
GBP/USD: Bearishly stuck in the 233d ma band. The inability to bounce from the 233d ma band is clearly a sign of weakness and a likely prelude to a sustained break of it. As we've earlier pointed at, a break of the 233d ma band has been a very good indication of a prolonged period of weakness, so it should certainly not be ignored. Yesterday's up-thrust like top clearly has the potential of marking the high of this anaemic reaction.
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