Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Next ref to be tested is near 1.3295. The 21day regression line seems to have a high significance and its 2 std dev band allows for a test of the 'Triangle' breakout objective at 1.3240 without causing a short-term stretch. But first up is a Nov '13 low at 1.3295 which is catching the eye and deserves some attention. Prior support at 1.3333 now represents initial resistance. The current intraday stretches are located at 1.3285 & 1.3370. Jackson Hole & Fed minutes are event risk for today.

USD/JPY: Targeting 103.34 next. An earlier potentially bearish candle was overrun by yesterday's high and bullish looking session close and continuation higher this morning. This puts a short-term topside 'Equality point' at 103.34 in focus and if not stopping there, the bar has to be lifted to the next set of refs (medium- & long-term) at 103.60/68. Premier support is located at 102.72 followed by dynamic supports, now at 102.63 & 102.27. Back under 102.13 would be renewed bearish. Intraday stretches are located at 102.40 & 103.45.

GBP/USD: Entering long term key support. We were apparently a tad too greedy waiting for 1.6750 mi body test to sell the pair. Instead Monday's high, 1.6739, was proven being the correction high as the market yesterday plunged below its prior low point. We have now arrived in the 233d ma band which over the years has proven to be an important watershed (last time we broke the 233d ma band was Jan 2013 triggering a 10 big figures decline). Expect some struggle with the band but once through it 1.6380 and 1.60-ish will come into play.

AUD/USD: Back on track for 0.92. Over the past days the market has repeatedly been denied entrance into the 55d ma band and yesterday's attempt again failed but this time also the rejection was strong enough to create a bearish key day reversal. We now have evidence enough to call for an end to the upside correction hence confirming the resumption of the underlying decline. 0.9200-0.9170 should hence soon be up for grabs.

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