The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: A final dip lower? The current tug of war between buyers and sellers does more and more resembles of a bear triangle hence indicating that the sellers will win the battle and a new trend low to be set. Such a move will however probably be a Pyrrhus victory given that a triangle normally is the last congestion in a trending phase and that after a new low/high a turnaround will be made. There’s also the bull divergence still in place ready to underpin any attempt higher.
USD/JPY: Sniffing at the 102.64\93 resistance. Following the failure below the 55day exponentially weighted moving average band last week; the grind higher has taken the pair back to sniff resistance at 102.64\93. Above the latter would strongly argue for a +103.15 extension. Back under 102.09/02 would ease upside pressure and instead get 101.51 back in sight. Current intraday stretches are located at 102.10 & 102.85.
GBP/USD: Approaching the 233d ma band. The bullish candle printed Tuesday had no impact whatsoever as the market interpreted the BOE inflation report as a tad less hawkish hence aggressively selling the pair. The result became a lot bigger bearish key day (than the previous day’s bullish one) reversal candle. Given that we already have broken the 55d ma band bearish news will have a greater impact than positive ones. Short term there will probably be a reaction from the yearly average. EUR/GBP also breaking up from kind of a base formation.
AUD/USD: Mid body test completed? The sought mid body reaction (0.9313) has now been made hence downside risks on the rise again (also the AUD/NZD upward correction probably in its latter stages). A break below 0.9288 will be the first more reliable sign that a correctional peak actually has been put in place. Above 0.9310 there will probably be another (but failed) attempt.
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