The end of October can be a very strong time for global stocks and the DAX is certainly one index that benefits from this pattern. For whatever reason, fund inflows tend to be large around this time of the year. As a result, global indices tend to disproportionately rise during the winter months over the summer months. Take a look at Germany’s strong seasonal pattern to illustrate the point.
Over the last 25 years, the DAX has risen 21 times between October 24 and December 31. The average gain has been + 6.46%. The largest gain was +26.88% in 1999 and the largest loss was -7.54%.
Major Trade Risks: The main risk to this trade is on risk-off trading on any further news of slowing growth for Germany.
Our products and commentary provides general advice that do not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY holds above 155.50 ahead of BoJ policy announcement
USD/JPY is trading tightly above 155.50, off multi-year highs ahead of the BoJ policy announcement. The Yen draws support from higher Japanese bond yields even as the Tokyo CPI inflation cooled more than expected.
AUD/USD extends gains toward 0.6550 after Australian PPI data
AUD/USD is extending gains toward 0.6550 in Asian trading on Friday. The pair capitalizes on an annual increase in Australian PPI data. Meanwhile, a softer US Dollar and improving market mood also underpin the Aussie ahead of the US PCE inflation data.
Gold price keeps its range around $2,330, awaits US PCE data
Gold price is consolidating Thursday's rebound early Friday. Gold price jumped after US GDP figures for the first quarter of 2024 missed estimates, increasing speculation that the Fed could lower borrowing costs. Focus shifts to US PCE inflation on Friday.
Stripe looks to bring back crypto payments as stablecoin market cap hits all-time high
Stripe announced on Thursday that it would add support for USDC stablecoin, as the stablecoin market exploded in March, according to reports by Cryptocompare.
US economy: Slower growth with stronger inflation
The US Dollar strengthened, and stocks fell after statistical data from the US. The focus was on the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast.