EUR/USD - 1.2054.. Although euro remained on the back foot in holiday- thin Asian morning n fell briefly below Fri's 1.2017 low to 1.2014 at European open, short covering lifted price to 1.2057, then 1.2075 in NY b4 retreating.

On the bigger picture, despite euro's LT upmove fm 2017 near 14-year low of 1.0341 to a fresh 3-year peak of 1.2555 in mid-Feb 2018, subsequent decline to a near 3-year 1.0637 low in Mar 2020 signals correction has ended. Despite an impressive upmove to a near 33-month peak of 1.2349 in early Jan 2021, subsequent decline to 1.1705 (Mar) signals top is made. Having said that, euro's stronger- than-expected gain to 1.2149 last week confirms low is made, however, subsequent fall to 1.2017 Fri suggests choppy trading below 1.2349 would continue, a weekly close below below 1.1994 sup would yield weakness to 1.1868, break, 1.1705 in Jun/Jul. Only a daily close abv 1.2149 risks gain to 1.2242, then 1.2349.

Today, as decline fm last Thur's 8-week peak of 1.2149 to 1.2014 suggests recent upmove has made a temp. top, reckon 1.2081 (50% r fm 1.2149) would cap recovery n yield another fall, below 1.2014, 1.1994, 'bullish convergences' on hourly indicators would limit downside to 1.1970/80. Abv 1.2116 risks 1.2149.

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