EUR/USD - 1.0169

Despite euro's rally above previous August's 1.0293 high to a 5-week peak of 1.0368 last Wednesday, subsequent decline to 1.0239 Friday, then selloff to 1.0123 ahead of New York open yesterday signals rise from July's 20-year 0.9953 low has possibly ended and as 1.0194 has capped rebound in New York, consolidation with downside bias remains but below 1.0112 needed for 1.0097.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0239 would prolong choppy swings and risk stronger gain to 1.0274/76.

Data to be released on Wednesday

New Zealand PPI input, PPI output, RBNZ interest rate decision, Japan machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index, wage price index.
U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, EU employment, GDP.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, retail sales and business inventories.

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