Technical Bias: Bullish
Key Takeaways
Aussie dollar was one of those currencies which managed to hold the ground steady against the US dollar in the recent times.
Majors such as EURUSD and GBPUSD collapsed, but AUDUSD managed to stay above critical support levels.
US Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate will be released by the US Department of Labor later today.
AUDUSD might maintain a neutral tone, but any major downside reaction from here might be considered as a buying opportunity.
Technical Analysis
The AUDUSD pair was recently seen trading in a range of around 50-80 pips, but it was mostly struggling to break higher. However, the Aussie dollar buyers were also seen holding a major support area. There is a bullish trend line on the 4 hour chart of the AUDUSD pair, which acted as a barrier for the pair in the near term and might continue to hold the downside. The 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7644 low to 0.7918 high is also around the same area. So, if the AUDUSD pair moves lower from the current levels, then it might find bids around the 0.7780-60 support area.
If the AUDUSD pair moves higher from here, then the 200 4-hour MA might come into play. If the Aussie dollar buyers have to take control, then the pair needs to settle above the mentioned MA.
The 50 and 100 SMA (4H) might also act as a catalyst in the near term.
US NFP
Later during the NY session, the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate will be released by the US Department of Labor. The forecast is slated for a gain on 240K in NFP. Moreover, the US unemployment rate is expected to decline from 5.7% to 5.6%.
Trade Idea
One might consider buying dips in the AUDUSD pair around the highlighted trend line with a stop below the same.
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