Nick Batsford, CEO of Tip TV, was joined by Zak Mir, technical analyst for ShareProphets.com, and Mike Ingram, strategist for BGC Partners, on the Tip TV Finance Show to discuss deflation, global oil demand, US Fed hike bets and China.
Global inflation picture
Batsford noted Elliott, who highlighted that British September CPI data yesterday was minus 0.1% Y/Y, but less than thought and lower than August. Chinese consumer prices grew by just 0.1% in September, 1.6% annualised (from 2.0% growth the previous month), while the producer price index fell by 5.9% over the year – and for a 43rd consecutive month. French consumer prices due later today are expected to be next to nothing while in Spain (also due today) they should continue to fall at a rate of roughly 1.2%. Ingram added that all central banks are looking at the impact of commodities on headline inflation at the moment, and hoping that by 206 commodities would have turned around a core inflation will look better. Mir commented that there is no links between cutting interest rates and causing inflation to rise, after Ingram outlined that markets don’t believe rate rises are coming with such low inflation and that China is continuing to cut interest rates after 5 cuts already.
China GDP
Ingram outlined that the China GDP figure being released next week will be shown to be around 6%, slightly lower than the 7% forecast. However, he still believes that the real figure in China is closer to 4%.
US advance retail sales could alter Fed rate hike bets
Batsford continued to FX Street, who highlighted that US advance retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% in September with ex-auto and gas seen rising 0.3%. They added that domestic consumption needs to rise if the Fed wants to raise rates, which would counter the drop in exports due to the strong USD.
Reduction in global oil demand
Batsford highlighted Elliott, who outlined that in its latest monthly report the International Energy Agency reduced its forecasts for 2016 global oil demand. This is now expected to grow by just 1.2 million for a totally 95.7 million barrels per day, lower than 2015’s 1.8 million daily increase. Ingram added that oil has been framed as just a supply problem, but now we are seeing that demand is a problem too.
Gold, media stocks and US earnings
Ingram commented on ITV, SKY and Vodafone, and he noted that media stocks have outperformed the global markets since 2010 and this pattern is set to continue in 2016. On gold, he continued that peoples falling confidence in central banks to fix the problems in the global market has resulted in gold becoming a buy. To finish, he expressed that US earnings season has not been too bad this far as opposed to his expectations, and now moves his worries towards Europe.
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