Aussie struggles in subdued trade

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar continued to struggle on Monday as investors witnessed a session of limited trade due to Australia day. With no data being released locally the AUD touched highs just above the US79 cent handle after previously reaching lows of 0.7860 earlier on. Overnight the Aussie edged higher to open this morning marginally stronger at 0.7916 against a weaker Greenback. Today investors will watch the NAB business confidence along with the Chinese CB leading index for guidance.

• We expect a range today of 0.7875 – 0.7955

New Zealand Dollar:

In a quiet start to the week the NZ dollar moved sideways for the majority of Monday’s trade. The higher yielding currency was relying on credit card spending to bring about movement however an uptake of 4.5 per cent was not enough to get the Kiwi trending in either direction. As the European and US markets opened the NZD began to retrace its daily gains nonetheless volatility was still limited, opening this morning slightly weaker at 0.7407. Today there will be no local numbers being released however offshore US and Chinese data should provide guidance.

• We expect a range today of 0.7365 – 0.7445

Great British Pound:

The British Pound edged higher against the US dollar on Monday beginning the week stronger taking solace from Fridays impressive retail sales numbers. The Sterling’s gains were notable as market sentiment waned following the Greek anti-austerity party Syriza winning the election. Although opening this morning stronger at 1.5090 the British Pound still remains very close to year and a half lows against the Greenback. The GBP moved in a similar direction against the higher yielding Kiwi(2.0345) however a resilient AUD(1.9034) managed to hold its ground. Today will see an array of high impact data being released into the market with preliminary GDP numbers the main event.

• We expect a range today of 1.9005 – 1.9085

Majors:

The Euro began the week stronger against its US counterpart as the markets continued to digest the Greek elections while German data was on forecast.  Anti-austerity Syriza party was victorious in Greece however there were concerns over the parties ability to renegotiate the nations bailout debt. This comes shortly after the EcB released an asset purchase program last week to try and help the Euro lift out of its current growth slump. Nonetheless it was the German IfO business climate which pushed the Euro higher printing the strongest levels in half a year coming in on forecast at 106.7. With no US data being released all eyes today will now turn to a Myriad of numbers being printed later tonight.

Data releases: 

• AUD: NAB Business Confidence
• NZD: No Data
• JPY: SPPI y/y
• GBP: Prelim GDP q/q, Index of Services 3m/3m
• EUR: ECOFIN Meetings
• USD: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, Flash Services PMI, CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Richmond Manufacturing Index