AUD ticks higher on soft US jobs Data

Australian Dollar:

With little domestic data on hand Friday the Australian Dollar was left to offshore vices for direction and enjoyed a modest rally as US Non-Farm Payroll numbers fell sharply. Surging to session highs the Aussie again met resistance on approaches to 0.94 failing to solidify any upward push and corrected lower to end the week within a familiar band at 0.9371. The AUD remains remarkably stable in what seems a boom or bust environment and with little on the domestic docket today macro drivers offer little direction Monday as attentions turn to Tuesday’s Nab Business Confidence report.

• We expect a range today between 0.9280 – 0.9400

New Zealand Dollar:

Much like its antipodean cousin the New Zealand Dollar rallied into the weekly close Friday on softer US jobs data. Weaker than anticipated Non-Farm Payroll numbers panicked investors reducing expectations the US Federal Reserve will raise rate early helping the Kiwi find support on runs below 0.83. With little on the Economic Calendar all eyes will be on Thursday’s RBNZ Rate announcement and Rate statement for direction.

• We expect a range today of 0.8280 – 0.8380

Great British Pound:

Sterling opens this week markedly lower falling below 1.62 as the ‘YES’ vote surges ahead of the Scottish Referendum for independence. The Gap has closed dramatically over the past month and pundits for liberation appear to have taken the lead according to fresh polling at the weekend. The market has downplayed the possibility of a split in the 300 year old union and the latest opinion polls have shocked investors into action. With the vote fast approaching the GBP will likely remain under pressure in the lead up to the September 18 election with a move below 1.60 a possibility should the YES vote prevail.

• We expect a range today between 1.7180 – 1.7350 

Majors:

The Greenback resurgence was halted Friday as softer Non-Farm Payroll numbers stymied expectations of an early Fed rate hike. Printing well below 200,000 for the first time in 7 months markets were left scrambling in a quick sell off of USD moving into the weekly close before support from Fed member Charles Plosser helped stabilise the world’s base currency. Plosser suggested the FOMC was moving much closer to its key goals and sentiment within the committee was beginning to shift. Investors now keenly await the September 16 and 17 meeting for a deeper insight into Fed direction and guidance on future monetary policy strategy. Euro and Yen remain under pressure and with little on the economic books Monday we expect recent trends to hold leading into a new week of trading.

Data releases

• AUD: ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
• NZD: Manufacturing Sales q/q
• JPY: Current Account, Final GDP q/q, Bank Lending and Economy Watchers Sentiment
• GBP: Halifax HPI m/m and BRC Retail Sales Monitor
• EUR: German Trade Balance and Sentix Investor Confidence
• USD: Treasury Secretary Lew Speaks and Consumer Credit m/m