Cycle Trading: Bonds - Timing Band

Bonds

Thursday's break to a new high negated the swing high that formed on Wednesday and assures us of a right translated cycle formation.

Friday was day 19 and bonds formed a swing high. Bonds have entered their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Bonds should break below the daily cycle trend line before completing their decline into a daily cycle low.

This was week 4 for the intermediate bond cycle. This is the 3rd intermediate cycle of the year. Therefore it is likely that this weekly cycle will form as a left translated, failed weekly cycle, which will lead to the yearly cycle decline. So once bonds decline into a daily cycle low, the new daily cycle will likely form as a left translated daily cycle.

April is month 10 for the yearly bond cycle. Bonds continue to close above the upper monthly cycle band, indicating a monthly uptrend. But at 10 months, bonds are in their timing band to seek out a yearly cycle low. A break below 126.05 will form a monthly swing high and signal the yearly cycle decline. Since bonds are in their timing band for a yearly cycle low we need to watch for signs that the current intermediate cycle forms as a left translated weekly cycle.

The 3 year bond cycle peaked in February, which was month 26, locking in a right translated 3 year cycle formation. Bonds are nearing their timing band to seek out a 3 year cycle low. With the yearly cycle trend line aligned with the 3 year cycle trend line, once bonds begin their yearly cycle decline, it will also likely indicate the 3 year cycle decline as well.