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Independent Analyst
The Dollar
After peaking on day 13, the dollar printed its lowest point on the previous Friday, day 25. Wednesday's close above the lower daily cycle band confirms that the dollar has left behind a 25 day, daily cycle low.
Thursday was day 4 for the new daily cycle. The dollar has been in a daily down trend that is characterized by closing below the lower daily cycle band. The dollar will remain in a daily down trend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.
The dollar closed the previous week, which was week 29, below the lower weekly cycle band. The close below the lower weekly cycle band indicates that the yearly cycle is in decline. The close this week above the lower weekly cycle band gives us our first indication that week 29 hosted the intermediate cycle low. A weekly swing low is required for more confirmation. A break above 97.09 is necessary to form a weekly swing low.
Stocks
A peak on day 27 assures us of a right translated cycle formation. The swing high and break of the daily cycle trend line indicate the daily cycle decline.
Thursday was day 29 for the daily equity cycle. Which places stocks just 1 day shy of entering its timing band for a daily cycle low. Thursday's bullish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 2036.04 will form a swing low. And if Thursday is confirmed as the daily cycle low, that will indicate a reestablishment of a monthly trend.
This is week 6 of the new intermediate cycle. A clear and convincing close above the declining weekly trend line will signal that this is a new yearly cycle for stocks.
Stocks have been in a monthly uptrend through July that was characterized by closing above the upper monthly cycle band. Stocks managed to close above the lower monthly cycle band during their decline into its yearly cycle low. Therefore stocks remain in a monthly uptrend. A monthly close above the upper monthly cycle band will reestablish the monthly uptrend.
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