EUR/USD: watch for stops below 1.0820

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0847

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The forex market started the week with a soft tone, as for once, the weekend lacked shocker news capable to affect currencies. Furthermore, Japan markets were closed due to a local holiday, keeping majors within familiar ranges, although with a clear demand for dollars. Data in Europe showed that the German Producer Price Index fell by 1.4% in June compared to a year before. In the same month, and compared with May, the index fell by 0.1%,  whilst the current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €18.0 billion in May 2015 below a revised €24.0B from April.

Ahead of the US opening however, the dollar has lost momentum and the EUR/USD pair trades some 20 pips above its daily opening. The short term picture presents quite a neutral stance, as in the 1 hour chart the price is moving back and forth around a flat 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators are barely heading higher around their mid-lines. In the same chart, the 100 SMA presents a strong bearish slope well above the current level, reflecting the strong selling interest that dominates the pair. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have bounced from oversold readings, but remain below their mid-lines, whilst the 20 SMA caps the upside around 1.0890 with its strong bearish slope. 

Support levels: 1.0820 1.0790 1.0745

Resistance levels: 1.0860 1.0890 1.0920 

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5555

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The GBP/USD pair trades lower in range this Monday, having been unable to advance beyond the 1.5600 level earlier in the day. There was no fundamental data in the UK during the European morning that was able to affect the price,  although late Sunday the UK released its Rightmove house price index, up 0.1% in July.  Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the pair found support around the 38.2% retracement of its latest bullish run, around 1.5545, but the bearish tone prevails as the price stands below a bearish 20 SMA whilst the technical indicators have barely bounced from oversold readings and remain in negative territory. In the 4 hours chart, the price is trying to recover above its 200 EMA, whilst the technical indicators lack directional strength below their mid-lines. A recovery above 1.5620 is required to see a more constructive tone in the Pound, towards the recent highs in the 1.5675 region.

Support levels: 1.5545 1.5510 1.5460

Resistance levels: 1.5585 1.5620 1.5675

USD/JPY Current price: 124.23

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USD/JPY flat, but above 124.00.  The USD/JPY pair trades in quite a limited range ever since the day started but holding above the 124.00 figure. With Japanese markets closed on a local holiday, there were no fundamental catalyst for the pair. Also, with stocks presenting limited intraday moves, the pair is unable to move on sentiment. Technically the 1 hour chart shows that the price is well above its 100 SMA, currently around 123.90, whilst the technical indicators present a mild bullish tone around neutral territory. In the 4 hours chart, the price remains near the daily high established at 124.36, and the RSI indicator hovers around overbought levels, although the Momentum indicator diverges lower, approaching its 100 level, which increases the risk of a bearish move. Nevertheless, the pair can decline down to 123.30 without actually confirming a top is in place. Buying interest is expected to surge on approaches to the level, whilst a price acceleration above 124.45 is required to see the pair advancing towards the 125.00 price zone. 

Support levels: 124.05 123.70 123.30 

Resistance levels: 124.45 124.90 125.30

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7384

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The AUD/USD pair fell to a fresh 6-year low of 0.7327 during the past Asian session, weighed by a slump in metal prices. Gold fell down to  $1,071.03 a troy ounce after China said on Friday its gold reserves were up 57%  at the end of June from the last time it adjusted its reserve figures more than six years ago, albeit the country has reduced drastically its buying of the metal over the last 2 years amid economic contraction. The sharp decline came after stops got triggered below the 1,131 level, the former 5-year low. As for the AUD/USD, the 1 hour chart shows that the recovery from the mentioned low, found sellers around the 0.7400 figure, albeit a slightly  positive tone prevails, as the price stands above its 20 SMA whilst the technical indicators stand neutral above their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, however, the price is being limited by a bearish 20 SMA whilst the technical indicators have turned south from their mid-lines, supporting additional declines for today.

Support levels: 0.7360 0.7325 0.7290

Resistance levels:  0.7400 0.7445 0.7470