There is lot of speculation that gold import curbs will be reimposed to manage fiscal deficit. India has once again increased crude oil imports from Iran. Higher crude oil import from Iran will also help in better fiscal management. The government is trying to take steps to manage the nations finances better.
India’s trade deficit for the month of October narrowed to $13.35 billion from $14.25 billion in September on lower oil imports. Trade deficit in October last year had stood at $10.5 billion. However, gold imports jumped to $4.17 billion from $1.09 billion a year ago. Silver imports were reported at $686 million.
The month long parliament session from next week will be the key. Performance will now count. Key pending bills need to be passed in the Rajya Sabha where the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is in minority. In case there a deadlock in the Rajya Sabha, there will be some short term pullout of investments away from India and a short term big weakness in the rupee. The prime minister has united the opposition in India. Political diplomacy will be key to passage of key bills in the Rajya Sabha.
Futures and option traders will now be taking positions for December end. Weakness in usd/inr can persist for some more time.
Usd/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Head and shoulder formation on the charts. Usd/inr can rise to 62.02 and 62.32 as long as it trades over 61.71.
Euro/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It needs to trade over 77.02 to rise to 77.56 and 77.96 There will be sellers only if euro/inr trades below 77.02 to 76.79 and 76.42.
Gbp/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Key long term support is at 96.30. There will be a long term technical break down if cable trades below 96.30 anytime. As long as cable trades over 96.30 it will trade in 96.30-96.89-97.34-98.40 zone. Jobbers watch 96.90 all the time.
Jpy/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It needs to trade over 53.06 to rise to 53.56-53.96. There will be another wave of selling below 53.06 to 52.8950 and 52.6775.
India’s trade deficit for the month of October narrowed to $13.35 billion from $14.25 billion in September on lower oil imports. Trade deficit in October last year had stood at $10.5 billion. However, gold imports jumped to $4.17 billion from $1.09 billion a year ago. Silver imports were reported at $686 million.
The month long parliament session from next week will be the key. Performance will now count. Key pending bills need to be passed in the Rajya Sabha where the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is in minority. In case there a deadlock in the Rajya Sabha, there will be some short term pullout of investments away from India and a short term big weakness in the rupee. The prime minister has united the opposition in India. Political diplomacy will be key to passage of key bills in the Rajya Sabha.
Futures and option traders will now be taking positions for December end. Weakness in usd/inr can persist for some more time.
Usd/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Head and shoulder formation on the charts. Usd/inr can rise to 62.02 and 62.32 as long as it trades over 61.71.
Euro/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It needs to trade over 77.02 to rise to 77.56 and 77.96 There will be sellers only if euro/inr trades below 77.02 to 76.79 and 76.42.
Gbp/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Key long term support is at 96.30. There will be a long term technical break down if cable trades below 96.30 anytime. As long as cable trades over 96.30 it will trade in 96.30-96.89-97.34-98.40 zone. Jobbers watch 96.90 all the time.
Jpy/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It needs to trade over 53.06 to rise to 53.56-53.96. There will be another wave of selling below 53.06 to 52.8950 and 52.6775.
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