In the next one year, I am only concerned by crude oil prices and its impact in India. The NDA government will be tested if and when global crude oil prices start to rise once again. In my view crude oil prices will form a long term bottom in the next two months to three months and thereafter start to rise. Higher crude oil prices can shake the fiscal deficit of India.
There is speculation that there can be a credit rating upgrade of India by some global rating agencies. This should result in more gains for the rupee. Better to remain on the sidelines. Euro and cable can rise further.
Usd/inr September 2014: Further rise will be there if and only if usd/inr breaks and trade over 61.3725. In case usd/inr does not break 61.3725 by Monday then it will trade in 60.4725-60.8625-61.0275-61.3725 range.
Euro/inr September 2014: A break of 79.12 will result in 79.39 and 79.76. Initial support is at 77.76. There will be sellers only below 77.76.
Gbp/Inr September 2014: It needs to trade over 99.18 to rise to 99.96 and 100.36. Initial support is at 99.18 and there will be sellers if cable trades below 99.18 in UK session.
Jpy/Inr September 2014: Till next week 56.85 is the key support. There will be a technical break down below 56.85 to 56.56 and 56.32. Overall jpuy/inr is bearish as long as it trades below 57.18.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds gains above 1.0700 as USD struggles ahead of data
EUR/USD is posting small gains above 1.0700 in the European session on Thursday. The pair remains underpinned by a sustained US Dollar weakness, in the aftermath of the Fed policy announcements and ahead of more US employment data.
GBP/USD stays firm above 1.2500 amid US Dollar weakness
GBP/USD is consolidating the rebound above 1.2500 in European trading on Thursday. The pair's uptick is supported by a broadly weakness US Dollar on dovish Fed signals. A mixed market mood could cap the GBP/USD upside ahead of mid-tier US data.
Gold price trades with modest losses amid positive risk tone, downside seems limited
Gold price edges lower amid an uptick in the US bond yields, though the downside seems cushioned. A positive risk tone is seen as another factor undermining demand for the safe-haven precious metal.
Top 3 Price Prediction BTC, ETH, XRP: Altcoins to pump once BTC bottoms out, slow grind up for now
Bitcoin reclaiming above $59,200 would hint that BTC has already bottomed out, setting the tone for a run north. Ethereum holding above $2,900 keeps a bullish reversal pattern viable despite falling momentum. Ripple coils up for a move north as XRP bulls defend $0.5000.
Happy Apple day
Apple is due to report Q1 results today after the bell. Expectations are soft given that Apple’s Chinese business got a major hit in Q1 as competitors increased their market share against the giant Apple.