The general consensus among small traders and medium sized manufacturers in India is that Indian economy will zoom from early next year. Optimism over next year’s growth potential has resulted in every one from small shop owner in a small locality in a very small town to billion dollar corporate groups being able to shun this year’s sluggish retail sales. I expect a big zoom in hiring of temporary workers and non-permanent employees from December onwards. Further there is a view that the government seriousness towards “Make in India” will reduce Chinese imports for goods which were otherwise manufactured by small scale enterprises and tiny enterprises and where labour content is very high. A drought in India can be overcome by a working government. This is happening in India.
India’s GDP grew at 5.7% in the three months through June, its fastest pace in two-and-a- half years. Manufacturing expanded at an annual rate of 3.5% during the April-June quarter compared with a contraction of 1.2%t a year ago. India's fiscal deficit in the first four months of the 2014/15 financial year was 3.25 trillion rupees ($53.7 billion), or 61.2 percent of the full-year target, government data showed on Friday.
Fiscal deficit is the only concern for global investors. The government has said that it has lined up huge sale of state run enterprises. On the global front US August nonfarm payrolls and European central bank meeting will be the key. Buy stop losses will be triggered if euro/usd fall below 1.3068 anytime this week. Gains in the US dollar can result in temporary weakness for the rupee.
Usd/inr September 2014: It needs to fall below 60.74 or break and trade over 61.05 for direction. Key weekly support is at 60.5375.
Euro/inr September 2014: Key monthly support is at hundred week moving average of 78.7750. There will be a technical breakdown below 78.7750 to 76.8350. Only a consolidated break of 81.30 will resume the uptrend. Jobbers watch 79.82 all the time.
Gbp/Inr September 2014: Cable is bearish as long as it trades below 101.10 with 100.39 and 100.10 as price target. Jobbers watch 100.95 all the time.
Jpy/Inr September 2014: Key support is at 58.18 with 58.92 as the key resistance. There will be a technical break down below 58.18 only.
India’s GDP grew at 5.7% in the three months through June, its fastest pace in two-and-a- half years. Manufacturing expanded at an annual rate of 3.5% during the April-June quarter compared with a contraction of 1.2%t a year ago. India's fiscal deficit in the first four months of the 2014/15 financial year was 3.25 trillion rupees ($53.7 billion), or 61.2 percent of the full-year target, government data showed on Friday.
Fiscal deficit is the only concern for global investors. The government has said that it has lined up huge sale of state run enterprises. On the global front US August nonfarm payrolls and European central bank meeting will be the key. Buy stop losses will be triggered if euro/usd fall below 1.3068 anytime this week. Gains in the US dollar can result in temporary weakness for the rupee.
Usd/inr September 2014: It needs to fall below 60.74 or break and trade over 61.05 for direction. Key weekly support is at 60.5375.
Euro/inr September 2014: Key monthly support is at hundred week moving average of 78.7750. There will be a technical breakdown below 78.7750 to 76.8350. Only a consolidated break of 81.30 will resume the uptrend. Jobbers watch 79.82 all the time.
Gbp/Inr September 2014: Cable is bearish as long as it trades below 101.10 with 100.39 and 100.10 as price target. Jobbers watch 100.95 all the time.
Jpy/Inr September 2014: Key support is at 58.18 with 58.92 as the key resistance. There will be a technical break down below 58.18 only.
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