Rupee wait for government policy announcements


In today’s Railway budget I will be looking for new sources to increase income and extent of entry of private players (if any). Indian railways needs higher income to reduce its burden on the government. The expenditure – income gap needs to be reduced by the railways plus I would be looking for allocation of funds. I just hopes that the Railway does not sell its land to meet the extra funds. (Indian Railways and Indian postal department have the maximum land bank among state run enterprises). 

There is nothing much on the global front. Israel-Hamas developments will be the key.  Euro/usd seems to be invincible for the moment as it not fallen below 1.35. Exporters are using every fifteen to twenty paisa rise to sell forward their receivables. Day traders need to be remain on the sidelines.

The next four days is very crucial for the rupee. 

Usd/inr July 2014:  It needs to trade over 60.19 to target  60.43-60.67.Initial support is at 60.19 and there will be another wave of selling if usd/inr trades below 60.19 after the announcement of railway budget. 

Euro/inr July 2014: A consolidated break of 82.03 will result in 82.26-82.76. Initial support is at 81.76 and there will be sellers only below 81.76 today.

Gbp/Inr July 2014: Cable needs to break 103.96-104.25 zone in the next two weeks for further gains. In case cable does not break 103.93-104.25 zone in the next two weeks, then it will fall back to 100.96 and 98.70. However momentum is on the upside. 

Jpy/Inr July 2014: It can rise to 59.3475-60.12 as long as it trades over 58.96. There will be sellers only below 58.96. 

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