KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
The Central European currencies saw a mixed trading on Friday. While the koruna slightly strengthened against the euro, both the zloty and the forint weakened. The forint fell by about 0.6 % vis-à-vis the common currency over the past two days as lower than expected inflation in November (and, probably even more importantly, lower core inflation) triggered some bets on a restart of monetary policy easing cycle.
In the week ahead, the calendar is filled mostly with Polish data. Later today, the statistical office will release data on inflation. Our estimate is in line with the market consensus, i.e. we estimate a price decrease by -0.5% Y/Y and -0.1% M/M in November. In month-on-month terms, we expect that plunging oil prices played a key role in pushing inflation rate below zero. Although we forecast inflation in Poland to remain below zero at least until the end of the first quarter next year, we trust the central bank to keep its word and shrug off inflation figures as long as the perspectives of the real economy remain good.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to marginal gains above 1.0750
EUR/USD trades in positive territory above 1.0750 in the second half of the day on Monday. The US Dollar struggles to find demand as investors reassess the Fed's rate outlook following Friday's disappointing labor market data.
GBP/USD edges higher toward 1.2600 on improving risk mood
Following Friday's volatile action, GBP/USD pushes higher toward 1.2600 on Monday. Soft April jobs report from the US and the modest improvement seen in risk mood make it difficult for the US Dollar to gather strength.
Gold climbs above $2,320 as US yields push lower
Gold trades decisively higher on the day above $2,320 in the American session. Retreating US Treasury bond yields after weaker-than-expected US employment data and escalating geopolitical tensions help XAU/USD stretch higher.
Addressing the crypto investor dilemma: To invest or not? Premium
Bitcoin price trades around $63,000 with no directional bias. The consolidation has pushed crypto investors into a state of uncertainty. Investors can expect a bullish directional bias above $70,000 and a bearish one below $50,000.
Three fundamentals for the week: Two central bank decisions and one sensitive US Premium
The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to strike a more hawkish tone, reversing its dovish shift. Policymakers at the Bank of England may open the door to a rate cut in June.