Debt limit bill vote is to blame

S&P 500 was complacent yesterday given VIX only at 18, but the key turn happened in tech, in the waning NDX market breadth. No rush to the exit door yet, but the rotation into value and cyclicals was barely there, and more than debt limit bill vote is to blame.

CDS have made up their mind – there wouldn‘t be a default, they  are declining. And Treasury bringing up fresh supply to the bond market means there would be less liquidity to prop up assets paper and real – the dollar is going to like that.

Couple that with my prognosis for today‘s data, and the result is more confirmation of Jun 25bp hike. Deleveraging and derisking is the theme today.

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Let‘s move right into the charts – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them.

Gold, Silver and miners

Gold and silver correction clearly isn‘t over, but $1,930 and (not $23.15 but) $22.40 at worst, should hold.

Crude Oil

Crude oil woes are back, with vengeance – targets given in the chart. Similarly copper is set for $3.55 rendezvous, for exactly the same reasons.