Kenny Polcari
KennyPolcari.com
*Breaking News - Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela agree to hold oil production at January levels.....US Futures are up 25 pts....building on Friday's gains.......The sense is that although it is not a CUT, it should clearly help to stabilize the outlook - OIL up 1.5%*
Mkts bounced hard on Friday – rising 300+ pts on the Dow – after having fallen hard on Thursday – (Dow lost 250 pts) on news that Deutsche Bank was buying $5 bil worth of its own bonds back, Commerzbank’s reported very strong numbers, and our own Jamie Dimon – spent $25 mil to buy some 500k shares of his own company stock…(now here is the power of a sale on Wall St - JPM is down 13% this year alone (and down 25% from the July highs) …if Jamie spent the same amount of money in early January – he would have only bought about 375k shares, but because he was patient and strategic – he was able to buy an additional 125k shares for the same money….) – the news sent JPM up 8.3% - giving Jamie a tidy $2 mil boost on his recent purchase and set off a firestorm in the banks across the board…the XLF (Financial Services ETF) rocketed higher by 4.2% on back of the news….as some of the individual names did even better: C +7.3%, BAC + 7% WFC + 4.7% & GS +3.8% . The question is - Will Uncle Lloyd (Blankfein) be so bold and put his money where his mouth is….and scoop up some GS stock that is down 20% ytd.
Now toss in the slightly better retail sales report and 'the rumor' that the Saudi’s and Russian's might consider coming to the table to ‘talk’ (and we see that the rumor was not in fact a rumor at all) – sending oil soaring by 12% - as the shorts ran for cover – gave US and global investors a reason to go shopping. And shopping they did – as every sector was appreciably higher by day's end.
Bottom line is that it has been pretty ugly out there – (and we are not talking about the Presidential election disaster going on) .....the mkts have had a very difficult time during the past 3 months – the prospect of lower oil has caused massive selling in equities by some very large sovereign wealth funds as they look to raise cash, ( and clearly - price IS NOT an issue when desperation hits), weakening global and US macro data raising concerns that the world is headed for another meltdown, central banks at a loss to understand why monetary policy is no longer working have resorted to negative interest rates - yet no worries - William Dudley – NY Fed Pres – told us not to worry –
‘negative rates are a bit premature to consider in the US’, while Janet told us on Thursday that ‘all options are being considered’
leaving legislators scratching their a**es as they point the finger of blame on everyone else… (Just for the record -when someone of authority (Dudley) so vehemently denies a rumor - then you know something is brewing....)
Bond Mkt reveals a change in sentiment as equities rally?
10 yr US treasury yields rose to 1.73% suggesting that money moved out of the ‘safety trade’ and back into risk and Gold which is the ultimate ‘safe haven’ asset has moved higher by 17% off of the December lows breaking thru all technical resistance levels during the past month and ended the day a bit lower at $1,239 an oz. All this on a 3 day weekend and as concern mounted over what the China mkt would do once they re-opened for trading on Sunday night after having been closed for a whole week for the Lunar New Year.
China did not meltdown at all - in fact - Monday saw a bit of consolidation and last night (Tuesday) saw the mkt rally by 3%.....this by no means is a suggestion that 'the worst is behind us' just yet.....but any stability in the oil mkts will clearly help alleviate the angst and volatility that global mkts have been under.
European mkts were up nicely in early trading as the ECB and Uncle Mario (Draghi) hinted at another 'easing' - saying that the ECB is "ready to do its part to make the Euro zone more resilient", but the mkts gave it all back and then some in afternoon trading...after the oil announcement disappointed many investors.....as the hope was for a CUT not a freeze and so the mkts continue to thrash around. FTSE +0.17%, CAC 40 - 0.11%, DAX -0.92%, EUROSTOXX -0.51%, SPAIN -0.8% and ITALY - 1.35%.
S&P futures are rocketing higher again this morning – in early morning trading they were up 30 pts taking that index right back to 1890 – anxiously wanting to test the psychological century mark of 1900- but have since also backed off a bit as the oil news permeates the conversation. Currently - futures are still up 22 pts at 1881. As suggested last week - Yellen did not appear to be completely 'out of touch' with reality and that is helping investors re-think the outlook. But the reality remains - until oil stabilizes and global macro data stabilizes and we get clarity on global central bank policy - the volatility will continue....
Over the weekend we learned of the passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia - our thoughts go out to his family - and while this is a blow to the Supreme Court - it has now ignited another firestorm in the political arena.... The GOP needs to tread lightly here....If they are seen as obstructionists they will NOT do themselves any favors in the general election. If the tables were turned - would the Republicans back down to the demands of the Democrats? And the plot thickens.....
Meat sauce - you need: 4 chicken thighs with the skin, 4 country style pork ribs, onions, garlic, olive oil s&p. 4 cans crushed tomatoes (NOT PUREE) Fresh basil.
Now - slice 3 large white onions, chop 4 gloves of garlic and sauté (med/hi) in a heavy bottom pot. After about 5 mins...add the chicken thighs and brown for about 15 mins....remove the thighs and set aside. (when it cools you can remove the skin if you prefer) Now add the ribs to the pot....brown these for about 15 mins... Remove and set aside. Now add - 4 cans of kitchen ready crushed tomatoes....if you cannot find then buy the plum tomatoes and run them thru the food processor - add 1 1/2 cans of water - stir - bring heat up to high until it boils then reduce to simmer....season with s&p, add the fresh chopped basil - like 6 / 8 leaves. Add back the meat - chicken, pork and meatballs. Add in the oil and bits from the fried meatballs. Let simmer for at least 45 mins - stirring occasionally....at this point it is all done. (But if you turn it off and let cool and refrigerate until the next day - it is always better.)
The Meatballs:
You need GROUND CHUCK..... Do not buy the 90/10 (90% lean/10% fat) you are wasting good money and your time!!! You need at least 75/25.....(75% lean/25% fat)
Now that we got that right - (you can also add some ground pork or veal if you like) I always use 1 lb of ground chuck and 1 lb of ground pork.....2 eggs, pepper, handful or two of grated Pamegiana, (if you only have Romano then that's fine), 2 med cloves of crushed and minced garlic*, 2 slices of Italian bread soaked in whole milk and a splash of olive oil....no need to add salt - the cheese will provide it.
Remove any rings and wash your hands.....now form the meat balls....bigger than a golf ball, but smaller than a baseball....next - I fry my meatballs and then add to the sauce...(you can also place on a baking sheet and bake in the oven for 15 mins or so on 350 degrees and then add to the sauce. )
Pre-heat the oven to 350 degrees.
Now bring a pot of salted water to a rolling boil - add the rigatoni and cook for 8 mins until aldente. Strain the pasta - reserving a mugful of pasta water . Return pasta to the pot - add back 1/4 cup of water to re moisten....now add 5 ladles of sauce and mix well. Next add in shredded mozzarella and a small container of fresh Ricotta cheese. Mix well. Don't forget the handful of fresh Parmegiana cheese. Pour this into a greased baking dish and top with just a bit more mozzarella and bake in the oven for 15 mins.
Remove and let it rest for 10 mins....Now place in the center of the table and serve. Always have extra sauce on the table for your guests.
Buon Appetito.
Mkts bounced hard on Friday – rising 300+ pts on the Dow – after having fallen hard on Thursday – (Dow lost 250 pts) on news that Deutsche Bank was buying $5 bil worth of its own bonds back, Commerzbank’s reported very strong numbers, and our own Jamie Dimon – spent $25 mil to buy some 500k shares of his own company stock…(now here is the power of a sale on Wall St - JPM is down 13% this year alone (and down 25% from the July highs) …if Jamie spent the same amount of money in early January – he would have only bought about 375k shares, but because he was patient and strategic – he was able to buy an additional 125k shares for the same money….) – the news sent JPM up 8.3% - giving Jamie a tidy $2 mil boost on his recent purchase and set off a firestorm in the banks across the board…the XLF (Financial Services ETF) rocketed higher by 4.2% on back of the news….as some of the individual names did even better: C +7.3%, BAC + 7% WFC + 4.7% & GS +3.8% . The question is - Will Uncle Lloyd (Blankfein) be so bold and put his money where his mouth is….and scoop up some GS stock that is down 20% ytd.
Now toss in the slightly better retail sales report and 'the rumor' that the Saudi’s and Russian's might consider coming to the table to ‘talk’ (and we see that the rumor was not in fact a rumor at all) – sending oil soaring by 12% - as the shorts ran for cover – gave US and global investors a reason to go shopping. And shopping they did – as every sector was appreciably higher by day's end.
Bottom line is that it has been pretty ugly out there – (and we are not talking about the Presidential election disaster going on) .....the mkts have had a very difficult time during the past 3 months – the prospect of lower oil has caused massive selling in equities by some very large sovereign wealth funds as they look to raise cash, ( and clearly - price IS NOT an issue when desperation hits), weakening global and US macro data raising concerns that the world is headed for another meltdown, central banks at a loss to understand why monetary policy is no longer working have resorted to negative interest rates - yet no worries - William Dudley – NY Fed Pres – told us not to worry –
‘negative rates are a bit premature to consider in the US’, while Janet told us on Thursday that ‘all options are being considered’
leaving legislators scratching their a**es as they point the finger of blame on everyone else… (Just for the record -when someone of authority (Dudley) so vehemently denies a rumor - then you know something is brewing....)
Bond Mkt reveals a change in sentiment as equities rally?
10 yr US treasury yields rose to 1.73% suggesting that money moved out of the ‘safety trade’ and back into risk and Gold which is the ultimate ‘safe haven’ asset has moved higher by 17% off of the December lows breaking thru all technical resistance levels during the past month and ended the day a bit lower at $1,239 an oz. All this on a 3 day weekend and as concern mounted over what the China mkt would do once they re-opened for trading on Sunday night after having been closed for a whole week for the Lunar New Year.
China did not meltdown at all - in fact - Monday saw a bit of consolidation and last night (Tuesday) saw the mkt rally by 3%.....this by no means is a suggestion that 'the worst is behind us' just yet.....but any stability in the oil mkts will clearly help alleviate the angst and volatility that global mkts have been under.
European mkts were up nicely in early trading as the ECB and Uncle Mario (Draghi) hinted at another 'easing' - saying that the ECB is "ready to do its part to make the Euro zone more resilient", but the mkts gave it all back and then some in afternoon trading...after the oil announcement disappointed many investors.....as the hope was for a CUT not a freeze and so the mkts continue to thrash around. FTSE +0.17%, CAC 40 - 0.11%, DAX -0.92%, EUROSTOXX -0.51%, SPAIN -0.8% and ITALY - 1.35%.
S&P futures are rocketing higher again this morning – in early morning trading they were up 30 pts taking that index right back to 1890 – anxiously wanting to test the psychological century mark of 1900- but have since also backed off a bit as the oil news permeates the conversation. Currently - futures are still up 22 pts at 1881. As suggested last week - Yellen did not appear to be completely 'out of touch' with reality and that is helping investors re-think the outlook. But the reality remains - until oil stabilizes and global macro data stabilizes and we get clarity on global central bank policy - the volatility will continue....
Over the weekend we learned of the passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia - our thoughts go out to his family - and while this is a blow to the Supreme Court - it has now ignited another firestorm in the political arena.... The GOP needs to tread lightly here....If they are seen as obstructionists they will NOT do themselves any favors in the general election. If the tables were turned - would the Republicans back down to the demands of the Democrats? And the plot thickens.....
Baked Rigatoni
This is the ultimate comfort dish - Baked Rigatoni with smashed meatballs and a classic meat sauce..... Reminds me of my grandmothers!Meat sauce - you need: 4 chicken thighs with the skin, 4 country style pork ribs, onions, garlic, olive oil s&p. 4 cans crushed tomatoes (NOT PUREE) Fresh basil.
Now - slice 3 large white onions, chop 4 gloves of garlic and sauté (med/hi) in a heavy bottom pot. After about 5 mins...add the chicken thighs and brown for about 15 mins....remove the thighs and set aside. (when it cools you can remove the skin if you prefer) Now add the ribs to the pot....brown these for about 15 mins... Remove and set aside. Now add - 4 cans of kitchen ready crushed tomatoes....if you cannot find then buy the plum tomatoes and run them thru the food processor - add 1 1/2 cans of water - stir - bring heat up to high until it boils then reduce to simmer....season with s&p, add the fresh chopped basil - like 6 / 8 leaves. Add back the meat - chicken, pork and meatballs. Add in the oil and bits from the fried meatballs. Let simmer for at least 45 mins - stirring occasionally....at this point it is all done. (But if you turn it off and let cool and refrigerate until the next day - it is always better.)
The Meatballs:
You need GROUND CHUCK..... Do not buy the 90/10 (90% lean/10% fat) you are wasting good money and your time!!! You need at least 75/25.....(75% lean/25% fat)
Now that we got that right - (you can also add some ground pork or veal if you like) I always use 1 lb of ground chuck and 1 lb of ground pork.....2 eggs, pepper, handful or two of grated Pamegiana, (if you only have Romano then that's fine), 2 med cloves of crushed and minced garlic*, 2 slices of Italian bread soaked in whole milk and a splash of olive oil....no need to add salt - the cheese will provide it.
Remove any rings and wash your hands.....now form the meat balls....bigger than a golf ball, but smaller than a baseball....next - I fry my meatballs and then add to the sauce...(you can also place on a baking sheet and bake in the oven for 15 mins or so on 350 degrees and then add to the sauce. )
Pre-heat the oven to 350 degrees.
Now bring a pot of salted water to a rolling boil - add the rigatoni and cook for 8 mins until aldente. Strain the pasta - reserving a mugful of pasta water . Return pasta to the pot - add back 1/4 cup of water to re moisten....now add 5 ladles of sauce and mix well. Next add in shredded mozzarella and a small container of fresh Ricotta cheese. Mix well. Don't forget the handful of fresh Parmegiana cheese. Pour this into a greased baking dish and top with just a bit more mozzarella and bake in the oven for 15 mins.
Remove and let it rest for 10 mins....Now place in the center of the table and serve. Always have extra sauce on the table for your guests.
Buon Appetito.
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