Dick Fuld - working the room (again).........saying it 'wasn't his fault'.....World Soccer President Sepp Blatter saying that 'the events of Wednesday have unleashed a storm', Vlad throwing his 2 cts into the conversation accusing the US of 'brazen conspiracy'.....Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert indicted on charges that 'he allegedly paid big money to keep someone quiet about HIS prior misconduct' as he withdrew large sums of cash in increments just less than the $10k threshold' telling the FBI that he didn't feel safe using the banking system - ( I mean you can't even make this stuff up..). US surveillance shows that China is building an 'artificial island' in the South China Sea......leading to all kinds of speculation about its use as a military outpost...
And then you have the usual, boring headlines- a lack of a deal in Greece and more hemming and hawing about the FED and the direction of interest rates.....to help toss the mkts around.
Stocks opened lower yesterday - offering zero follow through from Wednesday's rally - as the reality of 'No Deal' with Greece washed over the airwaves. This is despite the better than expected read on Pending Home Sales - in what is the 'good news is bad news' mantra causing any good news to mean that the Fed must be getting ready to raise rates - sending shudders thru the mkt.......on another low volume day...... In the end - as I have been saying - investors/traders just want clarity - or some kind of resolution - no matter which way - so that they can then assess and re-price risk.....until then - the churn continues...
In reality - it is only Greece and the Fed that are driving the mkts - all the rest of those headlines - are really just entertainment -I mean look at the lineup: Dick Fuld, Dennis Hastert, Sepp Blatter and Vlad.... I can't wait for Saturday Night Live this weekend........Think of all the material they have to work with.....
OK...the rising dollar? Should we be panicking? Well - discuss it - Yes.....panic - No. 3 days ago - the dollar did break thru resistance at 96.51- so is that a sell signal? If you look at the last couple of times that the dollar made strong advances - you will also see that the broad mkt did tend to back off.....I say back off and NOT sell off.......backing off is normal ebb and flow....sell off is much more dramatic...
So go back to March - the dollar spiked higher by 6% (as the ECB launched) and the S&P declined by 3.5%....then stabilized....In April - the dollar spiked by 4% and the S&P did nothing really.....actually moved higher over the month....as the thought was that the dollar was advancing because the economy was improving - bullish for stocks.....so - If the economy is really improving then a stronger dollar is not the siren call for the end of the bull mkt....Now only time will tell.....
This morning - we find that Greece has still not come to the table and made a deal....European mkts are under pressure as the clock ticks and investors digest the latest commentary out of the ECB Financial Stability Review -
"Sovereign risks emanating from Greece, in particular, have increased sharply owing to heightened political uncertainty over the past six months, while the banking sector in Greece has witnessed substantial deposit outflows, a loss of access to the wholesale funding markets and deteriorating asset quality....Financial market reactions to the developments in Greece have been muted to date, but in the absence of a quick agreement on structural implementation needs, the risk of an upward adjustment of the risk premium demanded on vulnerable euro area sovereigns could materialize."
Couple that with comments from IMF Director Legarde - as she told a German newspaper -
"it is very unlikely a comprehensive solution will be reached in the coming days' While acknowledging that a Greek exit from the Eurozone is a “possibility” but said it would “probably not be an end to the euro.”
That being said - US futures are down 3 pts...but that is up from where they were earlier this morning....Again - until we get finality on Greece - we will remain stuck.
Today we will get the final revision for 1Q GDP and all expectations are for it to show a negative number.....estimates run as high as -1% - but consensus is more like -0.6%.....The mkt is expecting that so - do not look for direction unless the number is way off...... In addition we will get ISM Milwaukee - exp of 50.....that is just on the cusp of contraction and expansion.....so this will be one to watch.
For this you need: Gemelli Pasta, Garlic, Onions, Sweet Sausage, White Wine, Heavy Cream and Crushed Tomatoes
Heat olive oil in a pot...add crushed garlic and one diced onion (Vidalia if you can get it). Sauté until soft and sweet, next add the sausage meat - which you have removed from the casing - until brown. Next add 2 cups of dry white wine and let the alcohol burn off....open 28 oz can of plum tomatoes and rough crush - so that it is a bit lumpy. Bring to a boil and then immediately turn to simmer. Stir and cover. Don't go too far because you will need to stir again.
Now add 1 cup + a little more of heavy cream (you can use lite cream if you prefer - but heavy cream gives it a richer taste). Let simmer until thickens...only about 4 or 5 mins....
In a separate pot bring salted water to a boil and add pasta - You can use any type of pasta you like - typically a short pasta is better vs. a spaghetti or linguine for this dish. Today I am using Gemelli -
Cook until aldente - 8 / 10 mins...strain - reserving a mugful of the pasta water....Add the pasta directly into the sauce and stir - making sure to coat well. Add a handful or two of parmegianna cheese and mix. If it looks like it needs some more liquid -add a bit of the pasta water to moisten. Serve immediately - offering more grated cheese to your guests. -
On a separate plate - make some garlic bread - using "Panne di Casa" sliced loaf. Melt butter/olive oil add crushed garlic and heat so that the garlic permeates the butter. Next using a pastry brush - brush the bread with the butter/garlic mixture and place under broiler until golden brown. Turn over and toast. When done -- remove from oven - slice in half and serve alongside the pasta.....It doesn't get any better than this.....
Buon Appetito.
And then you have the usual, boring headlines- a lack of a deal in Greece and more hemming and hawing about the FED and the direction of interest rates.....to help toss the mkts around.
Stocks opened lower yesterday - offering zero follow through from Wednesday's rally - as the reality of 'No Deal' with Greece washed over the airwaves. This is despite the better than expected read on Pending Home Sales - in what is the 'good news is bad news' mantra causing any good news to mean that the Fed must be getting ready to raise rates - sending shudders thru the mkt.......on another low volume day...... In the end - as I have been saying - investors/traders just want clarity - or some kind of resolution - no matter which way - so that they can then assess and re-price risk.....until then - the churn continues...
In reality - it is only Greece and the Fed that are driving the mkts - all the rest of those headlines - are really just entertainment -I mean look at the lineup: Dick Fuld, Dennis Hastert, Sepp Blatter and Vlad.... I can't wait for Saturday Night Live this weekend........Think of all the material they have to work with.....
OK...the rising dollar? Should we be panicking? Well - discuss it - Yes.....panic - No. 3 days ago - the dollar did break thru resistance at 96.51- so is that a sell signal? If you look at the last couple of times that the dollar made strong advances - you will also see that the broad mkt did tend to back off.....I say back off and NOT sell off.......backing off is normal ebb and flow....sell off is much more dramatic...
So go back to March - the dollar spiked higher by 6% (as the ECB launched) and the S&P declined by 3.5%....then stabilized....In April - the dollar spiked by 4% and the S&P did nothing really.....actually moved higher over the month....as the thought was that the dollar was advancing because the economy was improving - bullish for stocks.....so - If the economy is really improving then a stronger dollar is not the siren call for the end of the bull mkt....Now only time will tell.....
This morning - we find that Greece has still not come to the table and made a deal....European mkts are under pressure as the clock ticks and investors digest the latest commentary out of the ECB Financial Stability Review -
"Sovereign risks emanating from Greece, in particular, have increased sharply owing to heightened political uncertainty over the past six months, while the banking sector in Greece has witnessed substantial deposit outflows, a loss of access to the wholesale funding markets and deteriorating asset quality....Financial market reactions to the developments in Greece have been muted to date, but in the absence of a quick agreement on structural implementation needs, the risk of an upward adjustment of the risk premium demanded on vulnerable euro area sovereigns could materialize."
Couple that with comments from IMF Director Legarde - as she told a German newspaper -
"it is very unlikely a comprehensive solution will be reached in the coming days' While acknowledging that a Greek exit from the Eurozone is a “possibility” but said it would “probably not be an end to the euro.”
That being said - US futures are down 3 pts...but that is up from where they were earlier this morning....Again - until we get finality on Greece - we will remain stuck.
Today we will get the final revision for 1Q GDP and all expectations are for it to show a negative number.....estimates run as high as -1% - but consensus is more like -0.6%.....The mkt is expecting that so - do not look for direction unless the number is way off...... In addition we will get ISM Milwaukee - exp of 50.....that is just on the cusp of contraction and expansion.....so this will be one to watch.
Gemelli in a Sausage, Tomato Cream Sauce
For this you need: Gemelli Pasta, Garlic, Onions, Sweet Sausage, White Wine, Heavy Cream and Crushed TomatoesHeat olive oil in a pot...add crushed garlic and one diced onion (Vidalia if you can get it). Sauté until soft and sweet, next add the sausage meat - which you have removed from the casing - until brown. Next add 2 cups of dry white wine and let the alcohol burn off....open 28 oz can of plum tomatoes and rough crush - so that it is a bit lumpy. Bring to a boil and then immediately turn to simmer. Stir and cover. Don't go too far because you will need to stir again.
Now add 1 cup + a little more of heavy cream (you can use lite cream if you prefer - but heavy cream gives it a richer taste). Let simmer until thickens...only about 4 or 5 mins....
In a separate pot bring salted water to a boil and add pasta - You can use any type of pasta you like - typically a short pasta is better vs. a spaghetti or linguine for this dish. Today I am using Gemelli -
Cook until aldente - 8 / 10 mins...strain - reserving a mugful of the pasta water....Add the pasta directly into the sauce and stir - making sure to coat well. Add a handful or two of parmegianna cheese and mix. If it looks like it needs some more liquid -add a bit of the pasta water to moisten. Serve immediately - offering more grated cheese to your guests. -
On a separate plate - make some garlic bread - using "Panne di Casa" sliced loaf. Melt butter/olive oil add crushed garlic and heat so that the garlic permeates the butter. Next using a pastry brush - brush the bread with the butter/garlic mixture and place under broiler until golden brown. Turn over and toast. When done -- remove from oven - slice in half and serve alongside the pasta.....It doesn't get any better than this.....
Buon Appetito.
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