AUD/USD Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable amid the formation of a bearish flag pattern


  • AUD/USD bulls remain on the sidelines amid the RBA’s dovish tilt and China’s economic woes.
  • The Fed’s hawkish shift backs elevated US bond yields and helps revive demand for the USD.
  • Traders now look to the Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index for a fresh impetus.

The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on modest gains registered over the past two days and oscillates in a narrow range through the early European session on Monday. Spot prices remain within striking distance of the lowest level since October 2022 touched last week and seem vulnerable to prolonging a near three-month-old downtrend. Against the backdrop of concerns about China's fragile economic recovery, rising bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might start cutting interest rates earlier next year might continue to undermine the Australian Dollar (AUD). In fact, the central bank removed its hawkish bias earlier this month and stated that the board gained some confidence that inflation was heading back towards the 2%-3% annual target. 

The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, stalls its modest pullback from a two-year peak that followed the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. In fact, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the PCE Price Index, edged higher to 2.4% on a yearly basis in November from 2.3% previous. Moreover, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% during the reported period, matching October's print and arriving below expectations of 2.9%. The immediate market reaction, however, turned out to be short-lived amid the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish shifts, which, in turn, supports the USD and contributes to capping the AUD/USD pair. 

The Fed, as was anticipated, lowered its benchmark policy rate for the third time since September last week and signaled that it would slow down the pace of rate cuts next year. The outlook pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to its highest level in more than six months and favors the USD bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside. That said, expectations that China will roll out more fiscal stimulus in the coming year to boost growth, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, acts as a tailwind for the risk-sensitive Aussie at the start of a holiday-shortened week. Traders now look to the release of the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index for a fresh impetus.

AUD/USD 1-hour chart

fxsoriginal

Technical Outlook

A modest recovery from over a two-year low could be solely attributed to a technical bounce on the back of a slightly oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart. Meanwhile, the uptick has been along an upward-sloping channel. Against the backdrop of the recent downfall, the said channel constitutes the formation of a bearish flag on short-term charts. This, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory, suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair remains to the downside.

Hence, any further move up towards the trend-channel barrier, currently pegged just ahead of the 0.6300 mark, could be seen as a selling opportunity. A sustained strength beyond, however, might trigger a short-covering move and lift the AUD/USD pair towards the 0.6340-0.6350 horizontal support breakpoint, now turned resistance. Some follow-through buying could pave the way for additional gains, though any meaningful appreciating move still seems elusive. 

On the flip side, weakness below the lower boundary of the aforementioned channel, currently pegged around the 0.6235 region, might continue to find some support near the 0.6200 mark, or the year-to-date low. A convincing break and acceptance below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make the AUD/USD pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the 0.6130-0.6125 intermediate support en route to the 0.6100 round figure. The downward trajectory could extend further towards challenging the 0.6000 psychological mark.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD climbs to multi-month high above 1.1000 on broad USD weakness

EUR/USD climbs to multi-month high above 1.1000 on broad USD weakness

EUR/USD extends its rally to a fresh six-month high above 1.1000 in the European session on Thursday. The pair benefits from the intense selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar after US President Trump unveiled aggressive tariffs on the "Liberation Day." Markets await mid-tier US data releases.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD jumps above 1.3100 ahead of US data

GBP/USD jumps above 1.3100 ahead of US data

GBP/USD is extending its upbeat momentum above 1.3100 in European trading on Thursday as the US Dollar slumps to a fresh YTD low. Worries about a tariff-driven US economic slowdown lift Fed rate cut bets and weigh on the Greenback. The focus now remains on the US data for further impetus. 

GBP/USD News
Gold price moves further away from all-time peak; downside potential seems limited

Gold price moves further away from all-time peak; downside potential seems limited

Gold price extends its steady intraday pullback from the all-time peak touched this Thursday, though it manages to hold above the $3,100 mark through the early European session. Bullish traders opt to take some profits off the table and lighten their bets around the commodity amid slightly overbought conditions.

Gold News
SOL is the winner as Solana chain turns into battleground for meme coin launchpad and DEX

SOL is the winner as Solana chain turns into battleground for meme coin launchpad and DEX

Solana (SOL) gains nearly 2% in the last 24 hours and trades at 118.28 at the time of writing on Thursday. A Decentralized Exchange (DEX) and a meme coin launchpad built on the Solana blockchain have waged a war for users and compete for the trade volume on the chain. 

Read more
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on the way

Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on the way

United States (US) President Donald Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day” has finally arrived. After four straight failures to kick off Donald Trump’s “day one” tariffs that were supposed to be implemented when President Trump assumed office 72 days ago, Trump’s team is slated to finally unveil a sweeping, lopsided package of “reciprocal” tariffs. 

Read more
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025