AUD/USD declines amid cautious market mood ahead of Fed and RBA dovish bets

The AUD/USD pair falls sharply to near 0.6340 during Tuesday’s session amid a cautious market mood ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. The Fed is expected to signal fewer interest rate cuts for 2025. In Australia, souring consumer sentiment has boosted dovish bets for a potential rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February. Despite USD softness, the Aussie continues to struggle after failing to sustain earlier gains.

Fundamental overview

On the data front, the US November Retail Sales report triggered mixed reactions. Monthly Retail Sales grew by 0.7%, beating the 0.5% estimate, while the previous figure was revised up to 0.5% from 0.4%. However, Retail Sales excluding Cars and Transportation fell to 0.2%, missing the 0.4% forecast, with the prior month revised to 0.2% from 0.1%. This marginal beat and miss combination left traders hesitant to strengthen their conviction in the US Dollar further.

Industrial Production for November disappointed, contracting by 0.1% against expectations for a 0.3% expansion. For Wednesday’s decision, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 95.4% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed at Wednesday’s meeting, with markets leaning toward a pause in policy easing by January 2025. 

On the Australian front, the Aussie faces broad-based weakness amid a gloomy market outlook and rising speculation of RBA rate cuts. A 2% decline in Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence for December, following a 5.3% increase in November, raised concerns over economic growth. 

Technical overview

The AUD/USD pair declined by 0.42% to 0.6350 on Tuesday, marking another session of downward pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 34, sharply declining and approaching oversold territory. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram prints decreasing red bars, signaling strengthening bearish momentum.

Despite the continued weakness, oversold technical conditions could trigger a near-term corrective rebound. Immediate support lies near 0.6320, and a break below this level could open the door to further losses. On the upside, resistance is seen at 0.6380, followed by the psychological 0.6400 mark. A sustained move above 0.6400 would be required to shift the short-term bearish outlook and target a retest of recent highs around 0.6430.