Next week both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet. The RBA meets early Tuesday morning on the 4th of April at 05:30 UK time and the RBNZ meets early Wednesday morning at 03:00 UK time. The RBA is expected to pause rates at 3.60% and the RBNZ is expected to hike rates by 25bps to 5%. Currency traders will be looking for any hints of interest rate divergence between the two central banks to get a clear direction for the AUDNZD pair.

The seasonals are helpful here. April is the strongest month for AUDNZD gains gaining 65.22% of the time. So, if we do see a hawkish RBA decision and a dovish RBNZ one then AUDNZD longs will have a potential seasonal bias to the upside.

Major Trade Risks: The major trade risk here would be if the central bank decisions between the RBA and the RBNZ play out against the seasonal trend.


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