Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
HYCM
Next week both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet. The RBA meets early Tuesday morning on the 4th of April at 05:30 UK time and the RBNZ meets early Wednesday morning at 03:00 UK time. The RBA is expected to pause rates at 3.60% and the RBNZ is expected to hike rates by 25bps to 5%. Currency traders will be looking for any hints of interest rate divergence between the two central banks to get a clear direction for the AUDNZD pair.
The seasonals are helpful here. April is the strongest month for AUDNZD gains gaining 65.22% of the time. So, if we do see a hawkish RBA decision and a dovish RBNZ one then AUDNZD longs will have a potential seasonal bias to the upside.
Major Trade Risks: The major trade risk here would be if the central bank decisions between the RBA and the RBNZ play out against the seasonal trend.
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