There are less than two months until election day – but the results may fully be known only a month later. Slow counting – a result of a high volume of mail-in votes due to the pandemic – may result in a contested outcome and considerable consternation. Challenger Joe Biden has a four out of five chance of beating incumbent President Donald Trump after the dust from the party conventions settled and the long Labor Day weekend has passed. Little has changed in recent months. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight model is showing a 76% chance of a Biden victory while the Economist's forecast is at 84% for the Democrat, who is around seven points ahead of Trump in various averages of the national vote. Margins are tighter in crucial battleground states that determine the outcome, so anything is possible.
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EUR/USD has bounced off 1.17 as hopes for a new fiscal stimulus deal have risen. Earlier, US pending home sales and ADP Non-Farm Payrolls beat estimates. The chaotic US presidential debate weighed on sentiment beforehand.
GBP/USD is trading around 1.29, up from the lows. The safe-haven dollar is falling amid fresh hopes for a fiscal stimulus deal. Concerns about Brexit and the British coronavirus situation weighed on the pound earlier.