|

WTI trades with mild negative bias around $81.00 mark, bullish potential seems intact

  • WTI edges lower amid a modest USD strength, albeit lacks follow-through selling.
  • Expectations about tightening global supply and geopolitical tensions lend support.
  • Rising bets for a September rate cut by the Fed contribute to limiting the downside.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices tick lower during the Asian session on Friday, albeit lack follow-through and remain well within the striking distance of the highest level since late April touched the previous day. The commodity currently trades around the $81.00/barrel mark and seems poised to register strong gains for the second successive week. 

Data published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in US crude stockpiles and reaffirmed expectations about a tighter market in the second half of the year. This, along with concerns that a wider Middle East conflict will lead to potential disruption to global supplies from the key producing region, continues to act as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices and validates the near-term positive outlook.

Meanwhile, investors have been pricing in a greater chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate-cutting cycle in September and the bets were further reinforced by Thursday's softer US macro data. This turns out to be another factor lending some support to Crude Oil prices, though a modest US Dollar (USD) strength, bolstered by the overnight sharp rise in the US Treasury bond yields, might cap further gains for the USD-denominated commodity. 

Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bullish traders. Moreover, the recent breakout through technically important 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) suggests that the path of least resistance for Crude Oil prices is to the upside. Hence, any meaningful slide is more likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited. Traders now look forward to the release of the flash global PMIs for short-term opportunities.

WTI US OIL

Overview
Today last price81.03
Today Daily Change-0.09
Today Daily Change %-0.11
Today daily open81.12
 
Trends
Daily SMA2077.66
Daily SMA5079.32
Daily SMA10079.4
Daily SMA20079.04
 
Levels
Previous Daily High81.4
Previous Daily Low80.31
Previous Weekly High78.98
Previous Weekly Low75.03
Previous Monthly High81.25
Previous Monthly Low76.04
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%80.98
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%80.72
Daily Pivot Point S180.48
Daily Pivot Point S279.85
Daily Pivot Point S379.39
Daily Pivot Point R181.57
Daily Pivot Point R282.03
Daily Pivot Point R382.66

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD drops to daily lows near 1.1630

EUR/USD now loses some traction and slips back to the area of daily lows around 1.1630 on the back of a mild bounce in the US Dollar. Fresh US data, including the September PCE inflation numbers and the latest read on December consumer sentiment, didn’t really move the needle, so the pair is still on course to finish the week with a respectable gain.

GBP/USD trims gains, recedes toward 1.3320

GBP/USD is struggling to keep its daily advance, coming under fresh pressure and retreating to the 1.3320 zone following a mild bullish attempt in the Greenback. Even though US consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, the US Dollar isn’t getting much love, as traders are far more interested in what the Fed will say next week.

Gold makes a U-turn, back to $4,200

Gold is now losing the grip and receding to the key $4,200 region per troy ounce following some signs of life in the Greenback and a marked bounce in US Treasury yields across the board. The positive outlook for the precious metal, however, remains underpinned by steady bets for extra easing by the Fed.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP pare gains despite increasing hopes of upcoming Fed rate cut

Bitcoin is steadying above $91,000 at the time of writing on Friday. Ethereum remains above $3,100, reflecting positive sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting on December 10.

Week ahead – Rate cut or market shock? The Fed decides

Fed rate cut widely expected; dot plot and overall meeting rhetoric also matter. Risk appetite is supported by Fed rate cut expectations; cryptos show signs of life. RBA, BoC and SNB also meet; chances of surprises are relatively low.

Ripple faces persistent bear risks, shrugging off ETF inflows

Ripple is extending its decline for the second consecutive day, trading at $2.06 at the time of writing on Friday. Sentiment surrounding the cross-border remittance token continues to lag despite steady inflows into XRP spot ETFs.