WTI Price Analysis: Diving in a Wyckoff markdown phase, $73.00 eyed


  • The oil price has printed a fresh intraday low at $75.80 amid a risk-off market mood ahead of US NFP data.
  • West Texas is auctioning in a markdown phase after Wyckoff’s Inventory Distribution breakdown.
  • The 50-period EMA is acting as a major barrier for the oil bulls.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, has refreshed its day’s low at $75.80 in the early European session. The oil price is facing the heat as western central banks have hiked their interest rates further to tame soaring inflation. The asset is expected to test Thursday’s low around $75.30.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is displaying a lackluster performance after reaching to near 101.55 and is awaiting the release of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for fresh impetus.

On a four-hour scale, the oil price witnessed a sell-off after an Inventory Distribution breakdown. The inventory distribution in a minor range of $79.50-82.67 indicates a shift of inventory from institutional investors to retail participants. After an inventory distribution breakdown, the asset is in Wyckoff’s markdown phase post a throwback move to near $80.00.

The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $78.65 has acted as a major barricade for the oil price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 and is indicating more weakness.

After a sheer decline, a pullback move to near the 10-period EMA around $76.65 will be an optimal selling opportunity, which will drag the asset toward February 2 low at $75.15 followed by the horizontal support placed around January 5 low at $73.00.

Alternatively, a rebound move above February 1 high at $79.87 will drive the asset toward January 23 low at $81.19. A breach above the latter will expose the asset for more upside toward January 18 high at $82.67.

WTI four-hour chart

WTI US OIL

Overview
Today last price 75.83
Today Daily Change -0.17
Today Daily Change % -0.22
Today daily open 76
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 78.83
Daily SMA50 77.71
Daily SMA100 81.23
Daily SMA200 90.92
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 77.4
Previous Daily Low 75.16
Previous Weekly High 82.68
Previous Weekly Low 79.15
Previous Monthly High 82.68
Previous Monthly Low 72.64
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 76.02
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 76.55
Daily Pivot Point S1 74.97
Daily Pivot Point S2 73.94
Daily Pivot Point S3 72.72
Daily Pivot Point R1 77.22
Daily Pivot Point R2 78.43
Daily Pivot Point R3 79.46

 

 

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