WTI crude oil is on the back foot as risk-off prevails


  • Texas reported its highest one-day increase in COVID-19 case numbers.
  • WTI is trading over 1% lower at $35.72 after falling from a high of 436.31 to a low of $35,58 so far in the Asian session. 

The price of a barrel of crude oil is on the back foot during the Asian session and is embarking in a test of the overnight lows at $35.40 in WTI.

At the time of writing, WTI is trading over 1% lower at $35.72 after falling from a high of 436.31 to a low of $35,58. 

Risk assets are crumbling amid a risk-off tone across markets as investors fret about the second wave of infections of the coronavirus and a sombre outcome from yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting.

There was some late news in the day which hammered in the nail for US sentiment that Texas reported its highest one-day increase in COVID-19 case numbers, on Wednesday.

Florida reported the most cases of any seven-day period and California’s hospitalisations are back at their highest since 13 May. 

However, crude-oil futures had already dropped Thursday in tandem with a sell-off in US stocks while investors weighed both demand and supply bearish fundamentals.

Supply bearish fundamentals

Stockpiles of the black gold in the US rose by 5.7 million barrels for the week ended June 5,  much higher than the market had been expecting. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts for an average decline of 3.2 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel also rose.

"Over one million barrels of oil will be returning to the market, as Gulf nations curtail their massive voluntary cuts,' analysts at TD Securities explained. 

As risks emerge, WTI may again drift down to just under $35/bbl and Brent to $38.50/bbl, which prompted us to take profits on our Long WTI Dec-Dec spread trade.

The analysts cite concerns that shale production cuts may ease continue to loom over markets, as prices surge toward breakevens. 


We see risks emerging, due to the less-than-stellar supply projections. With refinery runs in the US struggling to pick up despite the modest demand-side normalization, the projected 2 billion bbls inventory accumulation during H1-20 may take longer-than-expected to unwind. 

WTI levels

WTI

Overview
Today last price 35.86
Today Daily Change -0.52
Today Daily Change % -1.43
Today daily open 36.38
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 35.21
Daily SMA50 28.3
Daily SMA100 35.49
Daily SMA200 46.41
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 39.25
Previous Daily Low 35.64
Previous Weekly High 39.81
Previous Weekly Low 34.45
Previous Monthly High 35.92
Previous Monthly Low 19.61
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 37.02
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 37.87
Daily Pivot Point S1 34.93
Daily Pivot Point S2 33.48
Daily Pivot Point S3 31.31
Daily Pivot Point R1 38.54
Daily Pivot Point R2 40.7
Daily Pivot Point R3 42.15

 

 

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