The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) published new forecasts for the Platinum market this morning. These are based on data from Metals Focus, a research company specializing in precious metals, Commerzbank’s Commodity Analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
Platinum supply deficit goes upwards
“The supply deficit this year is expected to be more than twice as high as previously expected, reaching a record level of just over 1 million ounces. This would also be the second deficit in a row, after demand already exceeded supply by 731 thousand ounces in the previous year. The significantly higher deficit is due to a marked upward revision of the demand forecast, which is expected to be 530 thousand ounces higher than previously anticipated.”
“The majority of the revision is attributable to investment demand. The WPIC has added demand for larger Platinum bars in China as a new investment category, which is expected to be quite robust this year. The WPIC also assumes that Platinum ETFs will record net inflows this year and not net outflows as previously assumed. Furthermore, industrial demand excluding the automotive sector is expected to be stronger than previously anticipated. Demand from the automotive industry, on the other hand, has been revised downwards slightly.”
“On the supply side, a slight upward revision in mine production was more than offset by a downward revision in recycling supply, meaning that overall supply is expected to be slightly lower than in the previous forecast. The Platinum price has not yet been able to benefit from the tight market. Although it has recovered somewhat from last week's low, it is still trading well below USD 1,000 per troy ounce. The price discount to Gold is currently $1,560. We remain convinced that the Platinum price has considerable upside potential.”
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