The three-day losing streak in the EUR/USD pair appears to have come to a halt around the 50-DMA level of 1.0674 this Friday morning. The pair failed to hold above the 200-DMA level earlier this week.
ECB Taper/rate hike is still a distant dream…
Euro bulls got a wakeup call earlier this week after reports hit the wires earlier this week that the ECB policy makers are reluctant to make any changes to the bank’s policy statement in April and feel the markets misread the ECB’s message in March from beginning to price in a rate hike by later this year.
This triggered a sell-off in the EUR/USD pair from the high of 1.0906 to 1.0672. The EUR is likely to stay on weaker footing as the market scale back their expectations of a rate hike ahead of the April meeting.
Reflation trade revival
The US Q4 GDP was revised higher to 2.1% from the preliminary estimate of 1.9%. Meanwhile, personal spending was revised higher to 3.5% and that seems to have triggered a revival of the Trumpflation/Reflation trade.
Overall, the EUR/USD looks set to take out the 50-DMA support… especially if US personal spending due later today prints higher than expected. The 10-year treasury yield could break above 2.43% on strong data, leading to a broad based USD rally.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
A break below 1.0674 (50-DMA) would expose the downward sloping 100-DMA seen at 1.0632, under which the losses could be extended to 1.06 (zero figure). On the other hand, a break above 1.0706 (Mar 16 low) would open doors for a re-test of 1.0759 (5-DMA) and 1.0772 (10-DMA).
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.