New Zealand quarterly employment report overview
Early Wednesday in Asia, at 22:45 GMT Tuesday the world over, the global market sees the second quarter (Q2) 2022 employment data from Statistics New Zealand.
With the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) consecutive fourth rate lift, as well as robust inflation and hopes of tighter monetary policy from other major central banks, today’s jobs report becomes crucial for the NZD/USD traders, mainly due to the wage prices index data.
Market consensus suggests a slight reduction in the headline Unemployment Rate to 3.1% from 3.2% while the Employment Change figure is likely to increase to 0.4% from 0.1%. Further, the Participation Rate may also improve to 71.0% from 70.9% but the Labour Cost Index could rise to 3.3% QoQ from 3.1% prior.
Ahead of the data, ANZ said,
We anticipate the unemployment rate will hit a fresh record low of 2.8% in Q2 (down from 3.2% in Q1). Finding workers remains the #1 constraint facing Kiwi businesses and this situation is expected to worsen as Kiwis are attracted across the Tasman. Australia’s labor market is experiencing similar challenges to the New Zealand market but the higher wages on offer in certain sectors is expected to attract New Zealanders into some of these positions.
How could it affect the NZD/USD?
NZD/USD edges lower around 0.6250, extending the previous day’s downbeat performance led by the hawkish Fedspeak and the US-China tussles.
That said, the Kiwi pair is likely to mark a kneejerk positive reaction in case the New Zealand job numbers arrive strong, which more is likely considering the tight labor market in Auckland and higher demand from Australia. However, the NZD/USD prices may not remain firmer for long unless the data is extremely positive, mainly due to the current risk-off mood. Furthermore, the recent shift in the RBA’s language also raises doubts about the hawkish mood of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and could please sellers in case the data disappoints.
Technically, a clear downside break of the three-week-old ascending trend line, at 0.6270 by the press time, directs NZD/USD prices towards the 21-DMA support level near 0.6210 at the latest.
Key Notes
NZD/USD under pressure as US dollar resurges
New Zealand: Unemployment rate seen higher at 3.3% in Q2 2022 – TDS
About New Zealand unemployment rate and employment change
The quarterly report on New Zealand's unemployment rate and employment change is being released by Statistics New Zealand.
The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the New Zealand economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
On the other hand, employment change is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in New Zealand. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZ dollar, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.