When is the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and how could it affect EUR/USD?


ECB monetary policy decision – Overview

The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision this Thursday at 11:45 GMT. The central bank is widely anticipated to leave its monetary policy settings unchanged and indicate that it is in no hurry to slow the pace of the emergency bond-buying program. Hence, the key focus will be on a fresh round of staff projections and the post-meeting press conference, where comments by the ECB President Christine Lagarde might infuse some volatility.

As FXStreet's own analyst, Yohay Elam, explains: “There are several reasons why the bank could disappoint cheerful investors and refrain from any tightening at this juncture. First, the emergence from the covid crisis is still fragile as the increase in UK cases has shown. Secondly, while headline inflation is at the bank's target, Core CPI remains tame, at 0.9% in May.”

How could it affect EUR/USD?

According to economists at ING: “Given the expectations of no change in guidance on asset purchases, the balance of risks is modestly skewed to a higher EUR, should the press conference not reiterate the tapering on hold message strongly enough or deliver some communication missteps. The balance of risks is skewed to modestly higher EUR/USD, even if our base case is for a largely unaffected euro after the meeting.”

Meanwhile, Yohay Elam offered a brief technical outlook and outlined important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “Euro/dollar has dipped back below the 50 and 100 simple moving averages on the four-hour chart and momentum has flattened out. The pair trades above the 200 SMA. All in all, bears have taken back some ground, but the pair has been flat for some time now. Some support is at the daily low of 1.2160, followed by 1.2150 and 1.21, support lines on the way up. Resistance is at 1.22, the round number that held it down last week, followed by 1.2220, Wednesday's peak, and then by 1.2255 and 1.2266.”

Key Notes

  •  European Central Bank Preview: Why June's decision presents a buy the dip opportunity

  •  EUR/USD Forecast: First down, then up? Playbook for the ECB and CPI storm

  •  EUR/USD: The risk stays seen mildly lower whilst below 1.2208/18 – Credit Suisse

About the ECB interest rate decision

ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced by the European Central Bank. Usually, if the ECB is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the EUR. Likewise, if the ECB has a dovish view on the European economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.

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