When is the Australia employment report and how could it affect AUD/USD?

June month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders. The figures become all the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recently cautious statements as well as extended local lockdowns in Australia.

Market consensus favors Employment Change to ease from 115.2K previous readouts to 30.0K on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely to rise from 5.1% to 5.5%. Further, the Participation Rate may increase a bit to 66.3% versus 66.2% prior.

In addition to the Aussie jobs data, China’s second-quarter (Q2) GDP and June’s print of Retail Sales, as well as Industrial Production, up for publishing around 02:00 AM GMT, will also be important for the AUD/USD prices. Forecasts suggest the headlines Q2 GDP to rise 1.2% QoQ from 0.6% previous readouts while the Retail Sales and Industrial Production may ease to 11.0% and 7.8% YOY versus 12.4% and 8.8% respective prior.

TD Securities expect a mixed data while saying,

While the reintroduction of strict lockdowns in certain states could weigh on the labor market progress thus far, we hold onto our view that the lockdowns are likely to be short and sharp which will allow the labor market to bounce back, with the u/e rate likely to fall to 4.5% by year-end.

Additionally, analysts at Westpac said,

June Weekly Payrolls confirmed a recovery from the May Victoria lockdowns, and the Labor Force survey was conducted too early to pick up the NSW lockdown. Payrolls point to a -0.2% fall in original terms but are likely to be revised up. Our 45k forecast (market +20k) for employment is consistent with a flat print in original terms. 

How could the data affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD fades Wednesday’s bounce amid cautious sentiment during early Thursday. The Aussie pair’s latest weakness could also be traced to the coronavirus (COVID-19) fears at home as well as the reflation woes, renewed by the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data.

RBA’s commitment to easy money, despite signaling adjustments in bond purchases, could gain additional strength should today’s data from Australia and China weaken. Hence, downbeat prints of the key economics could reverse the previous day’s corrective pullback near the yearly low.

Technically, MACD teases bulls after two months but a clear upside break of the three-week-old resistance line near 0.7485-90 becomes necessary for the AUD/USD to aim for the 200-DMA level near 0.7585. However, failures to do so could keep sellers hopeful to witness a fresh yearly low around the 0.7400 threshold.

Key Notes

AUD/USD approaches 0.7500 on USD pullback, Aussie employment, China data eyed

Australian Employment Preview: Soft outcome anticipated amid recent lockdowns

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

About the Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).