Amid the early Asian session on Friday, Statistics New Zealand is up for releasing New Zealand’s (NZ) second-quarter (Q2) Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 22:45 GMT.
With the RBNZ’s clear mandate to alter bond purchases starting from late July, also citing risks from inflation, NZD/USD traders are keen to follow today’s CPI data to build the bets over the first rate hike among major central banks in 2021.
Forecasts suggest the headlines CPI YoY to arrive at 2.8%, stronger than 1.8% prior and the RBNZ’s expected 2.6% whereas QoQ figures may remain unchanged at 0.8%.
Ahead of the data, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said,
This is a crucial data point for the RBNZ – it will be the first time that annual inflation has exceeded 2% since before COVID. But more important than the headline number will be the details of the release. A strong showing from non-tradable and core measures of inflation would reaffirm our view that underlying inflation pressures are building, and that higher interest rates are needed ASAP. As the RBNZ now acknowledges, the balance of risks has flipped towards possible overshooting of the inflation and employment targets.
On the same line, Westpac also said,
We expect Q2 CPI growth of 0.8%, which would see the annual rate rising to 2.9% (well above the RBNZ’s last published forecast). In terms of specifics of the June report, we expect particular strength in food prices (in part due to the recent increase in the minimum wage), higher construction costs and a further rise in used car prices.
How could the data affect NZD/USD?
Comparatively firmer fundamentals and the ability to tame the covid woes at home puts the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the top of the central banks up for a rate hike this year. The inflation data is likely to cross the RBNZ benchmark of 2.0% and may reconfirm the bullish view, which in turn could propel the NZD/USD prices to consolidate the latest losses. However, any negative surprises, which are least likely, can respect the current risk-off mood in the markets to extend the kiwi pair towards the yearly low.
On a technical side, the pair’s inability to keep RBNZ-led gains beyond 200-DMA, around 0.7080 suggests underlying momentum weakness. However, bears need a clear break of 0.6920 to push back and recovery hopes.
Key Notes
NZD/USD consolidates and awaits critical NZ CPI
NZ CPI and BoJ decision due on Friday
About NZ CPI
Consumer Price Index released by Statistics New Zealand is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of NZD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative.
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