Overview
New Zealand's economic calendar is reimbursing for the recently thin data line on Friday. The Statistics New Zealand is up for publishing June month trade numbers at 10:45 GMT on Thursday (Friday for Asia).
Market consensus favor MoM Trade Balance to decline to $450M from $1253M. The yearly trade deficit figure stood at $-1.33B whereas Exports and Imports had $5.39B and $4.14B respective priors.
Ahead of the event, the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) says, “The monthly trade surplus is expected to narrow to $426 million as export volumes reduce in line with their normal seasonal pattern while imports increase to normal levels.”
Additionally, TD Securities also have a say on the data, “The trade balance for June is released, and the market looks for a decline in the trade surplus from 1253M in May to 450M in June.”
How could they affect NZD/USD?
Considering the kiwi pair’s latest pullback moves, amid escalation risk-off sentiment, any further weakness in the trade numbers will add strength to the recent selling of the pair. As a result, upbeat trade numbers are less likely to offer any meaningful upside to the NZD/USD prices. It should, however, be noted that the gradual increase in New Zealand’s trade surplus pushes it far from the coronavirus (COVID-19)-led economic slowdown and could offer broad strength to the New Zealand dollar (NZD).
Technically, the early-month top surrounding 0.6600 becomes the immediate key support to watch ahead of June month’s top near 0.6585 and 21-day SMA surrounding 0.6550/45. On the upside, bulls will wait for a clear break of 0.6700 ahead of targeting the yearly top near 0.6745.
Key notes
NZD/USD corrects further below 0.6650 as S&P 500 extends slide
About New Zealand Trade Balance
The Trade Balance released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of balance amount between import and export. A positive value shows a trade surplus while a negative value shows a trade deficit. Any variation in the figures influences the domestic economy. If a steady demand in exchange for exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the NZD.
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