Japan’s Finance Ministry is up for releasing the final reading of the fourth quarter (Q4) 2019 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures at 23:50 GMT on Monday. Despite being the final reading, which generally grabs less market attention than the preliminary ones, today’s Japan GDP will be the key amid coronavirus (COVID-19) fears.
Market consensus suggests a -1.7% figure of the growth signal versus a -1.6% preliminary forecast on QoQ basis. Further, the yearly format indicates no change in 1.3% figure while GDP annualized may decline further to -6.6% from -6.3% projected earlier.
Ahead of the release, Westpac said:
“The final revision for Japan’s Q4 GDP is due, and is expected to print slightly below the original estimate at -1.7%. This weak number reflects the fragility of Japan’s economy ahead of COVID-19. In addition, the market anticipates that Japan’s January current account balance will tick up to ¥562.6bn.”
How could Japan’s preliminary GDP affect USD/JPY?
While there has been no retrace in the economic data from Japan since preliminary reading, the Final reading is likely to exert additional pressure on the Japanese policymakers. Recently, Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso signaled the government’s readiness to announce further measures. However, no clear directions were given, which in turn increases the importance of today’s growth figures. The reason being the likely end of contradicting plays between the BOJ’s long-time push for fiscal measures while the government’s inaction.
Technically, prices need to bounce back beyond October 2019 low surrounding 106.50 to regain the buyers’ confidence, failing to do so can keep dragging the quote towards 100.00 psychological magnet.
Key Notes
USD/JPY registers fresh multi-week low, under 105.00, amid coronavirus woes with eyes on Japan GDP
USD/JPY Forecast: Strong support at 105.00 under pressure
About the Japanese Q4 final GDP
The Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced in Japan within a given period. GDP is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which the Japanese economy is growing or decreasing. A high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the JPY, while a low reading is negative.
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