US monthly retail sales overview
Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for the month of May, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Following the previous month's dismal figures, consensus estimates point to a modest rebound during the reported month. The headline sales are predicted to rise 0.2% on a monthly basis as compared to April's reading of -0.2%, and sales excluding automobiles are seen ticking higher by 0.3% as against 0.1% previous. Meanwhile, the growth for the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is expected to rise 0.4% after a flat reading in April.
However, analysts at Wells Fargo expect a 0.7% increase in retail sales headline and explained - “We remain constructive on the consumer and their contribution to overall economic growth. Fundamentals for sustained, solid consumer spending remain sound, including healthy hiring gains, low unemployment and firming wages. Assuming the labor market remains healthy, as we expect, consumer spending growth should be solid in the quarters ahead.”
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction in case of a relative deviation of -0.60 or less, the pair may go up reaching a range of 15-pips in the first 15-minutes and 54-pips in the following 4-hours. Alternatively, the reaction to a higher than expected reading, with a relative deviation of 0.52 or higher could be in the range of 16-pips in the first 15-minutes and 50-pips in the following 4-hours.
How could it affect EUR/USD?
Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels for trading the major – “Initial support awaits at 1.2770 which has supported EUR/USD today and on Thursday. It is followed by 1.1250, which was a stepping stone on the way up last week. The next lines are 1.1220 that capped it in late May and the post-ECB low of 1.1200.”
“Some resistance awaits at 1.1290 that was a support line last week and today's high. 1.1310 was a swing high in early June, and 1.1348 is the highest level since March,” he added further.
Key Notes
• US Retail Sales Preview: Return to spender
• EUR/USD Forecast: Trending lower and at the mercy of the US consumer
• EUR/USD Technical Analysis: The pair is eroding the multi-month support line in the 1.1280 area
About US retail sales
The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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