When are the UK retail sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?


UK Retail Sales Overview

The UK Retail Sales, scheduled to be published at 06:00 GMT on Friday, are expected to slump 16% MoM in April, following -5.1% seen in March. Total retail sales are seen depleting 22.2% over the year in the reported month, down from -5.8% booked previously.

Meanwhile, core retail sales, stripping the basket off motor fuel sales, are also likely to portray the coronavirus (COVID-19) impact with -15.0% MoM and -18.2% YoY numbers.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 80 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 150 pips.

How could it affect GBP/USD?

Given the survey period comprising the virus-led lockdown, the actual outcome is set to spread the disappointment. As a result, the BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s recent shift towards praising the negative rates could gain major attention to drag the Cable southwards. However, any surprises or even a small miss to the forecast could dim the impact of the data on GBP/USD pair.

Considering the market scenario, FXStreet’s Yohay Elam says,

Retail Sales have likely plunged by double-digits in April. The pound has resisted previous top-tier releases but may succumb to pressure at this juncture – especially if the yearly figure misses estimates. 

Technically, the Cable registers mild losses of 0.09% on a day to 1.2215 while flashing a three-day losing streak at the press time of pre-London open on Friday. That said, the pair likely inching closer towards the monthly bottom of 1.2075. However, the 1.2100 mark could offer an intermediate halt. Alternatively, a two-week-old falling trend line around 1.2240 holds the key to the pair’s fresh recovery towards 50-day SMA, currently near 1.2275. In a case where the bulls manage to cross 1.2275 on a daily closing basis, May 08 high near 1.2470 will be in the spotlight.

Key Notes

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Mildly bid above 1.2200 inside short-term triangle, UK Retail Sales eyed

UK Retail Sales Preview: Will a third fall finally fell the pound? Yearly figure may steal the show

About the UK Retail Sales

The retail sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

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