UK Jobs report overview
Early Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the March month Claimant Count figures together with the Unemployment Rate in the three months to February at 06:00 AM GMT.
The UK labor market report is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to February, are expected to rise by 3.0%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are also seen rising by 3.1% in the reported period.
The number of people seeking jobless benefits, namely the Claimant Count Change, is likely to increase by 172.5K in March versus +17.3K seen last. Further, the ILO unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9% during the period.
How could they affect GBP/USD?
The GBP/USD pair’s gradual weakness towards revisiting a 21-day SMA level of 1.2355 recently gains additional strength from the pair’s drop to the eight-day low, while also waiting for the key UK data. Even if the survey period might disappoint the bears, overall fundamental pessimism, mainly due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, will keep exerting downside pressure on the Cable. That said, surprisingly positive data could offer intermediate pullback to the quote, but the bears are less likely to step back.
By the press time during the pre- European session on Tuesday, GBP/USD seesaws around 1.2400, the lowest since April 09, 2020, down 0.24% on a day.
Yohay Elam, Analyst at FXStreet explains, “In case the Claimant Count Change exceeds expectations and surpasses 200,000, GBP/USD could tumble down as it would show the economic situation is worse than expected. Any level between 150,000 to 200,000 would be considered within expectations and is still likely to weigh on the pound, as it would trigger headlines of the worst figure in years. Only a more restrained increase could of under 150,000 or below 100,000 would be sufficient to support sterling.”
Key notes
GBP/USD holds steady in 1.2460s, awaiting UK data this week
UK Jobless Claims Preview: Tenfold leap may be too modest, GBP/USD has room to fall
About UK jobs
The UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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