USD/TRY Price Analysis: RSI divergence probes post-CBRT rally at record top

USD/TRY grinds higher after refreshing all-time top the previous day.
CBRT rate cut failed to impress lira sellers amid inflation woes.
Bearish RSI divergence hints at a pullback towards multi-month-old support line.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

USD/TRY bulls keep reins around the record high, remain sidelined near $11.12 heading into Friday’s European session. The Turkish lira (TRY) pair is up for the third consecutive weekly advance wherein the latest run-up follows a 100 basis points (bps) of a rate cut by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), marked the previous day.

Even so, the RSI line teases sellers with the bearish divergence compared to the USD/TRY prices moves.

The bearish divergence could be known when the quote makes a higher-high but the RSI line makes a lower-high, signaling that the bulls are tiring and hence hinting at pullback.

In this case, the USD/TRY pair may retrace to October’s top of $9.85 while the $10.00 psychological magnet offers immediate support.

It should be noted, however, that the previous resistance line from August 2018, near $9.28, will become a tough nut to crack for the bears.

On the flip side, the latest peak of $11.31 will be the key for the USD/TRY buyers before they head towards the $12.00 threshold and rise further.

USD/TRY: Weekly chart

Trend: Pullback expected

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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