USD/SEK declines as markets digest US Retail Sales and CPI figures

US CPI and Retail Sales came in lower than expected.
The odds of a cut from the Fed in July slightly increase, and September continues being the best-case scenario.
Fed officials might change their tone as economic figures showed softness.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

On Wednesday, the USD/SEK saw sharp losses as the potential for sooner interest rate cuts by the Fed, in light of the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) disinflation and lackluster Retail Sales, may exert weight on the USD.

On the data front, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US witnessed a marginal decrease in inflation, with the headline CPI moving down from 3.5% in March to 3.4% in April. Core CPI also observed a fall, retreating from 3.8% to 3.6%, aligning with market expectations. In addition, U.S. Retail sales in April remained stagnant, a dip from the anticipated 0.4% growth.

The cooling economic indicators imply that the Federal Reserve might contemplate a sooner start of the easing cycle which would invariably exert pressure on the USD. The CME FedWatch Tool highlights that investors have already priced in that there will be no changes in interest rates in June, but continue seeing with good eyes a cut in September. Those odds slightly increase for the July meeting but remain low.

USD/SEK technical analysis

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the USD/SEK pair resides in negative territory. The latest reading, marking a downward trend, suggests that sellers are dominating. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is producing rising red bars, thus demonstrating negative momentum.

That being said, strong support was noted at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) with buyers defending the level at 10.66. This defense acts as a crucial bulwark against any potential downward trend reversals.

EUR/JPY

Overview
Today last price	168.37
Today Daily Change	-0.87
Today Daily Change %	-0.51
Today daily open	169.24

Trends
Daily SMA20	166.55
Daily SMA50	164.62
Daily SMA100	162.45
Daily SMA200	160.61

Levels
Previous Daily High	169.36
Previous Daily Low	168.47
Previous Weekly High	167.97
Previous Weekly Low	164.48
Previous Monthly High	171.6
Previous Monthly Low	162.28
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	169.02
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	168.81
Daily Pivot Point S1	168.69
Daily Pivot Point S2	168.14
Daily Pivot Point S3	167.8
Daily Pivot Point R1	169.58
Daily Pivot Point R2	169.91
Daily Pivot Point R3	170.46

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

AUD/USD falters just above 0.7000; looks at the jobs data

AUD/USD has briefly managed to surpass the 0.7000 threshold on Wednesday, although the move rapidly dissipated following higher-than-estimated US inflation data in September, which has eventually lent extra legs to the Greenback. Moving forward, the release of the labour market report will take centre stage in Australia on Thursday.

USD/JPY consolidates near 158.50; looks to US CPI for fresh impetus

USD/JPY stays range-bound near 158.50 in the Asian session on Wednesday, with looming intervention risks supporting the Japanese Yen and capping upside amid a softer US Dollar. However, geopolitical uncertainties act as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and the pair. Traders also seem hesitant ahead of the release of the latest US inflation figures.

Gold remains offered below $4,100

Gold adds to the weekly bearish tone and slips back below the $4,100 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday. Indeed, the precious metal continues to suffer the stronger US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields as bets for extra tightening by the Fed remain on the rise following US inflation figures.

Bitcoin and Gold Forecast: BTC and XAU drop after hot US CPI

Bitcoin (BTC) is edging lower toward $82,000 on Wednesday as headwinds from sticky inflation in the United States (US) force investors to reevaluate their positioning. Gold (XAU/USD) remains under sustained selling pressure, trading below $4,100 and falling for a third consecutive day. As the correction intensifies, a retest of key $4,000 support appears likely unless bearish momentum abates.

Stock futures just went red on the CPI. Here's what the bond market is pricing that equities haven't caught up to

Since late June, the bond market has been pricing in a Federal Reserve (Fed) that keeps raising rates into 2027, and most US stocks have already been marked down for it. The S&P 500 hasn't, because a handful of AI-linked giants make up much of the index and their prices haven't followed the rest.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?