USD/SEK declines as markets digest US Retail Sales and CPI figures

US CPI and Retail Sales came in lower than expected.
The odds of a cut from the Fed in July slightly increase, and September continues being the best-case scenario.
Fed officials might change their tone as economic figures showed softness.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

On Wednesday, the USD/SEK saw sharp losses as the potential for sooner interest rate cuts by the Fed, in light of the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) disinflation and lackluster Retail Sales, may exert weight on the USD.

On the data front, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US witnessed a marginal decrease in inflation, with the headline CPI moving down from 3.5% in March to 3.4% in April. Core CPI also observed a fall, retreating from 3.8% to 3.6%, aligning with market expectations. In addition, U.S. Retail sales in April remained stagnant, a dip from the anticipated 0.4% growth.

The cooling economic indicators imply that the Federal Reserve might contemplate a sooner start of the easing cycle which would invariably exert pressure on the USD. The CME FedWatch Tool highlights that investors have already priced in that there will be no changes in interest rates in June, but continue seeing with good eyes a cut in September. Those odds slightly increase for the July meeting but remain low.

USD/SEK technical analysis

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the USD/SEK pair resides in negative territory. The latest reading, marking a downward trend, suggests that sellers are dominating. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is producing rising red bars, thus demonstrating negative momentum.

That being said, strong support was noted at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) with buyers defending the level at 10.66. This defense acts as a crucial bulwark against any potential downward trend reversals.

EUR/JPY

Overview
Today last price	168.37
Today Daily Change	-0.87
Today Daily Change %	-0.51
Today daily open	169.24

Trends
Daily SMA20	166.55
Daily SMA50	164.62
Daily SMA100	162.45
Daily SMA200	160.61

Levels
Previous Daily High	169.36
Previous Daily Low	168.47
Previous Weekly High	167.97
Previous Weekly Low	164.48
Previous Monthly High	171.6
Previous Monthly Low	162.28
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	169.02
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	168.81
Daily Pivot Point S1	168.69
Daily Pivot Point S2	168.14
Daily Pivot Point S3	167.8
Daily Pivot Point R1	169.58
Daily Pivot Point R2	169.91
Daily Pivot Point R3	170.46

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

GBP/USD flirts with tops near 1.3470

GBP/USD manages to regain composure and challenge the area of daily highs around 1.3470 on Friday. Cable picks up pace despite marginal gains in the Greenback in a context of swelling geopolitical tensions and rising global oil prices.

EUR/USD struggles above 1.1500 despite USD weakness

EUR/USD struggles with its recovery above 1.1500 in European trading on Monday, despite broad US Dollar weakness and improved risk sentiment. The USD loses traction following US President Trump's call off an attack on Iran and that talks between the two sides would happen on Monday. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations and US ISM PMI data.

Gold's struggle with 21-day SMA extends ahead of US-Iran talks

Gold keeps its range around $4,050 early Monday, consolidating the previous decline. The US Dollar holds losses, fuelled by the USD/JPY slump and Mideast diplomacy hopes. Gold awaits a clear directional breakthrough, but sellers likely have the upper hand on the 1D chart.

Week ahead: US payrolls report and AI earnings to keep investors on edge

After the Fed decision, NFP report awaited for more rate hike clues. Employment also on the agenda in Canada and New Zealand. Chinese trade and Japanese wage data to be watched too. But Iran and AI headlines to remain in driver’s seat for risk sentiment.

Solana risks a steeper decline below $70 despite steady ETF inflows

Solana (SOL) is trading in the red, losing bullish momentum and remaining capped below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $75.68. SOL-focused Exchange Traded Funds show resilience with a monthly inflow of $14.62 million in July, while the near-term retail support wanes with the funding rate turning negative.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.