USD/PLN continues to shoot higher on surprisingly deep NBP rate cut, breaching 4.3200

Polish central bank cuts interest rates deeper than expected, draws criticisms.
Politics appear to be influencing central bank action rather than the economy.
Polish inflation is still in double-digit territory despite recent declines.

FXStreet Team FXStreet

The USD/PLN is pushing higher following an interest rate cut from the National Bank of Poland (NBP), sending the Polish Zloty (PLN) into a tailspin. The NBP cut their reference rate from 6.75% to 6% on Wednesday, and the move is sending the PLN to five-month lows, erasing much of 2023’s gains.

Polish annual inflation remains slightly above 10%, far below the peak of 18% from earlier this year but still well above the NBP’s target of 2.5%. The Polish economy is also showing signs of a deepening slowdown, and too much movement from the NBP could exacerbate problems for the Polish economy.

Polish central bank accused of political motivations

NBP Governor Adam Glapinski, an open supporter of the governing Law and Justice conservative party, has been criticized for the poorly timed rate cut. Marek Tatala, vice president of the Economic Freedom Foundation, publicly stated that the central bank has “joined the election campaign” using his position at the NBP to try and stoke popularity for the ruling party by easing borrowing costs.

Reductions to the inflation rate will help to make lending rates cheaper in the short term, but Polish politician Ryszard Petru noted in a statement that cutting rates will be “pro-inflationary”, which could make life harder for the Polish population moving forward.

USD/PLN technical outlook

The USD/PLN has broken well above the 100-day EMA on the daily candles and appears set to continue breezing past the 4.3000 psychological level as the PLN eats away at the progress made through the year. The USD peaked against the Zloty in late 2022 near 5.000, reaching a floor of 3.9354 in July.

Technical resistance currently rests at the upper bound of April’s consolidation zone, just below 4.5000, and any bearish resurgence will face dynamic support from the 100-day EMA that is beginning to rotate bullish from 1.4500.

USD/PLN Daily chart

Author

FXStreet Team

FXStreet

Composed of a group of economic journalists and FX experts, the FXStreet content team produces and oversees all content published on FXStreet. It provides a purely journalistic approach to the Forex market.

GBP/USD holds recovery gains near 1.3400 despite soft UK CPI data

GBP/USD clings to recovery gains near 1.3400 in European trading on Wednesday. The UK annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooled to 2.6% in June against the market forecast of 2.7%, failing to deter the British Pound's rebound from weekly troughs. However, the pair's further upside could be limited by ongoing Mideast tensions and sustained US Dollar demand as a haven.

EUR/USD gains ground above 1.1400 on hawkish ECB tone

The EUR/USD pair holds positive ground near 1.1410 during the early European trading hours, bolstered by a hawkish tone from the European Central Bank. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid escalating military tensions and recent retaliatory airstrikes between the US and Iran.

Gold ease from two-week top as energy-driven inflation fears bolster Fed hike bets

Gold retreats slightly from a two-week high touched earlier this Wednesday, albeit it retains an intraday bullish bias through the first half of the European session. Hopes that US-Iran diplomacy could ease energy prices and temper hawkish US Federal Reserve expectations undermine the US Dollar, which is seen supporting the commodity. In fact, top negotiators for Iran and the US signaled that they have not walked away from talks.

Cardano: Short-term recovery lacks retail support

Cardano price edges lower after the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $1.770 capped two consecutive days of recovery seen earlier this week. ADA futures point to waning retail traction as Open Interest and trading volume decline amid elevated long liquidations. The technical outlook for ADA is bearish, as momentum remains subdued below a resistance trendline near $0.1782.

Chip stocks are more volatile than Oil

I continue to start the day by looking at these two charts: US crude & Kospi. The former is extending gains, trading above $86 per barrel for WTI and $92 per barrel for Brent, while the Kospi is up more than 4.5%, led higher by Korean chipmakers following a similar jump in VanEck's Semiconductor ETF yesterday.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.