USD/NOK rises on solid Jobless Claims and sticky inflation expectations in US

In Wednesday's session, the USD/NOK enjoyed an upward rally, trading near the 10.750 level. The upward movements were fueled by robust Jobless Claims figures from the US and the higher inflation expectations of the University of Michigan (UoM), which spooked investors.

In line with that, according to the University of Michigan, inflation expectations stood at 3.2% for five years, and despite showing no suprises, it still suggests that they remain sticky above the 2% target of the Fed.  Other data showed that the US Department of Labor reported that in the week ending November 18, Initial Jobless Claims totalled 209,000, marking the lowest reading in five weeks.

As a reaction, the expectations of sticky inflation and a robust labour market reminded investors that the Federal Reserve (Fed) left the door open for further tightening in case needed. As for now, the CME FedWatch tool indicates that the markets are still pricing in a pause in the next Fed meeting in December, and the question that arises is for how long the bank will maintain the rates at restrictive levels. 

The next highlight of the week will be November’s preliminary S&P PMIs from the US to be reported on Friday.

USD/NOK levels to watch

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) finds itself in the negative territory, with a positive slope suggesting a buildup in buying momentum. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents decreasing red bars, indicative of the selling pressure gradually easing off but still present.

Considering the pair's positioning with respect to the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), the picture becomes clearer. It currently holds a position beneath the 20-day SMA, which implies an immediate selling pressure, inhibiting further upward movement in the short term. Yet, the pair's position above the 100 and 200-day SMAs cements the longer-term bullish influence. 

Support Levels: 10.677 (100-day SMA), 10.655 (200-day SMA), 10.600.
Resistance Levels: 10.810, 10.830, 10.900.

USD/NOK daily chart